It exposes an interesting flaw in people's thinking where they hear percent and immediately convert it to a binary (75% -> Yes, 29% -> No). If pressed most would probably claim to understand that 75% means "every 4th time we see this it won't work" and 29% "nearly every 3rd time it will", but in my experience most people act more appropriately for the binary outcome than the probabilistic one.
Thinking and acting to the probability model is almost a superpower; I keep finding I'm ready for 1 in 10 style events that other people don't see coming. After being told authoritatively there is a 10% chance of it happening, no less. Eg, I will look at what a 1:100 year rain event in an area will cause then make long term decisions around it.
Thinking and acting to the probability model is almost a superpower; I keep finding I'm ready for 1 in 10 style events that other people don't see coming. After being told authoritatively there is a 10% chance of it happening, no less. Eg, I will look at what a 1:100 year rain event in an area will cause then make long term decisions around it.