Comment Comment by NotAnEconomist My back of the napkin math indicates that roughly 2x as many people will die in the US this year.Normal deaths are 2.8M/year.There's 330M people in the US. At 70% infection, that's 230M people. At 1% mortality, that's 2.3M excess deaths.That's 80% of the normal deaths for a year; and since other causes of death haven't stopped... we get 180% for the year, or "twice as many". parent NotAnEconomist 6 years ago
Normal deaths are 2.8M/year.
There's 330M people in the US. At 70% infection, that's 230M people. At 1% mortality, that's 2.3M excess deaths.
That's 80% of the normal deaths for a year; and since other causes of death haven't stopped... we get 180% for the year, or "twice as many".