Swag maths on the business-as-usual scenario incoming, bound to be very wrong:
3.4% mortality rate among those presenting symptoms. (via WHO)
As low as 17.9% of cases asymptomatic: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/18/what-percen...
Of the symptomatic cases, 80.9% are mild (https://www.sciencealert.com/large-chinese-study-finds-most-...) and we're assuming only the ones that present risks are being tested.
So if the 25.5m figure stands correct, we're looking at what, a range of 195,000 to 695,000 possibly passed on in california before June depending on whether you apply it to not-mild (19.1%) cases v. all symptomatic (82.1%) cases?
I can't find any concrete sources on how anyone is calculating current mortality rates for the bug, but:
1. that swing is unfathomable to me
2. those numbers are unfathomable to me. Especially once extrapolated to the whole country assuming 56% of the nation contracts it.
3.4% mortality rate among those presenting symptoms. (via WHO)
As low as 17.9% of cases asymptomatic: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/18/what-percen...
Of the symptomatic cases, 80.9% are mild (https://www.sciencealert.com/large-chinese-study-finds-most-...) and we're assuming only the ones that present risks are being tested.
So if the 25.5m figure stands correct, we're looking at what, a range of 195,000 to 695,000 possibly passed on in california before June depending on whether you apply it to not-mild (19.1%) cases v. all symptomatic (82.1%) cases?
I can't find any concrete sources on how anyone is calculating current mortality rates for the bug, but:
1. that swing is unfathomable to me
2. those numbers are unfathomable to me. Especially once extrapolated to the whole country assuming 56% of the nation contracts it.