People keep saying that, but I wouldn't be so sure. From an earlier comment of mine (edited for clarity/formatting):
Most recent study of methane flux/storage in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf: [1]
Arctic temperatures are estimated to rise 1.9x compared to global average: [2]
During Holocene Climate Optimum (the warmest period in human history) the arctic is estimated to have been 4-6C warmer than baseline (yearly average): [3]
That's not all that much. We're now already at 400ppm CO2, and recent unmitigated projections to 2100 (538ppm) simulate an arctic yearly average of ~ plus 8C [4].
And that most probably doesn't take a positive methane feedback loop into account. This is a significant gamble. The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum boundary showed a global average warming of 5C, mostly from arctic methane at a time where there wasn't even a large ice shelf, so with significantly lower capacity [5].
We can only guess what a global average temperature increase of 13C could do to the ecosystem that's currently feeding 7B people.
People keep saying that, but I wouldn't be so sure. From an earlier comment of mine (edited for clarity/formatting):
Most recent study of methane flux/storage in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf: [1]
Arctic temperatures are estimated to rise 1.9x compared to global average: [2]
During Holocene Climate Optimum (the warmest period in human history) the arctic is estimated to have been 4-6C warmer than baseline (yearly average): [3]
That's not all that much. We're now already at 400ppm CO2, and recent unmitigated projections to 2100 (538ppm) simulate an arctic yearly average of ~ plus 8C [4].
And that most probably doesn't take a positive methane feedback loop into account. This is a significant gamble. The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum boundary showed a global average warming of 5C, mostly from arctic methane at a time where there wasn't even a large ice shelf, so with significantly lower capacity [5].
We can only guess what a global average temperature increase of 13C could do to the ecosystem that's currently feeding 7B people.
[1] http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2052/2014...
[2] http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025244/full
[3] https://epic.awi.de/38441/1/Beierlein_2015_Holocene_page1.pd...
[4] http://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-is-set-to-reach-13c-by-...
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene–Eocene_Thermal_Maxim...