yyyk
Joined 7 years ago
Joined 7 years ago
Why would Iran want to do it? Iran could absolutely control Hormuz* and get a nuke at will** under the deal. At that point it can avoid sanctions by threatening the Gulf. Or demand other concessions for allowing the Gulf to operate. That's what it tries to do now, but from a much weaker position compared to the deal timeline.
* Take the real life prewar Iranian missile and drone strength, assume Iran had an extra couple of hundreds of billions to pour into it, no import limits by the UN, a less restive populace, etc.
** Breakout timeline being a week at most at end of expiry timeline. Probably the only way to keep the Gulf independent at that scenario would have been nuclear deterrence.
>If not, why would they even bother to follow the agreement in the first place?
Because Iran wasn't anywhere strong enough at the time to risk a war, but the existence of the agreement and general developments would have predictably changed the power balance in its favor.
>The legality of what they do has never been a consideration
Well, if you decide something is legal, it's much tougher to change one's mind and stop it later.
** Yes, I know that's proven to be impossible.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf
Enrichment % is very misleading. Natural is about 0.7%. 3.5% is halfway to 90%. The distance from 60% to 90% is tiny.
That's because the distance is calculated using the quantity of raw material that needs to be filtered and not the enrichment percent, the more pure, the less material needed, hence smaller distance to 90%.
>Right, they could, and didn't. Why?
Some people worked hard to ensure the latter would be very inadvisable for Iran. Being so close isn't a stable equilibrium though.
Perhaps that's an acceptable cost of avoiding higher gas prices right now - except Iran would have had the capacity to decide these at will. It's a fair choice, but best to be aware of the consequences.
I think in the long run Russia will recover its output if that war stops. China wants its resources too badly, especially if it gets into a fight with US. As for Iran that depends on how the war ends. Gulf likely returns to normal.
The one gripe I'll have is that rowlevel security is slow and messy to use. If a design allows skipping it, it should be skipped.
(By contrast, a supply cut is 'not developing new fossil resource cuz someone else will buy it and burn it', which is obviously a dead end).
It's assuming a huge zero-trust point-to-point network where it's a rare scenario for IPv4 LANs. IPv4 LANs tend to assume the internal network is semi-trusted and route through hubs, so merging networks is a bad idea even when the mapping does not conflict (which often doesn't if the companies are tiny like most are). Even in a zero-trust point-to-point environment you'd want to review the other side, convert it to your software, etc. And the people on the being acquired side have little reason to care too.
It's a scenario that's only relevant for a huge company constantly acquiring other companies that operates via zero-trust point-to-point networking and strongly tries to minimize human review - basically Google/Alphabet.