wtvanhest
Joined 15 years ago
Joined 15 years ago
In an extreme example… only 20 parents fed their kids honey and 20 kids contracted botulism.
That would be a 100% risk. Obviously in real life it’s not 100% of kids, but still could be a meaningful percentage and likely higher than 1 in 50,000 for babies that eat honey.
1. Not all Americans have cars or drive.
2. Each state has different legislative structures which impact payouts and medical costs. Some states cost more than the average per accident, some cost less.
3. Your risk may be higher than average
4. You may drive more or less miles than average
5. Your choice of car makes you more or less risky
Despite some really bad decisions by the management team on letting expenses get out of control, it’s an absolutely incredible product.
Allergies are fascinating bc they are a continuum and random.
Continuum from…
zero symptoms if you eat the protein in the nut and just a positive blood test…
all the way to…
cannot be in same room as nuts if they will have a reaction that constricts their ability to breath.
They are also random in that your outcome can be wildly different each time.
The result imo is that drs who detect any food allergy, let’s say the child has a slightly swollen lip after eating sesame will run labs on blood and skin and get some real positives and some false positives.
Next they say not to eat anything the person is allergic to in order to prevent a life threatening allergy.
If no blood or skin tests existed this person may go through life mainly avoiding the food bc it’s uncomfortable, but never think of themselves as allergic to X.
Net result is that people with allergies are safer now, but the % of people we know have allergies has increased.
As a side note, if you are reading this as a parent with a kid with a recently discovered food allergy, please note… it totally sucks, but… you will adjust over time to the higher workload and constant label reading, hang in there.
I agree with your point that the message should have way less info which could buy me additional time.
Something like: 4.5-5.9: “Earthquake cat 1” 6.0-6.3: “Earthquake cat 2”
Etc. something to tell me, get ready, or something to tell me this is going to be huge, but not precise numbers or even better:
“Earthquake, 3.87 seconds” with a count down would be ideal. If I have 7 seconds I can get outside. 2 seconds and I duck and cover.
Real world metrics would feel slightly more on brand than valuations