wrong_variable
Joined 10 years ago
Joined 10 years ago
What "suffering" has the rest of the world done to brazil ?
The new dealers ( FDR, Truman ) gave organized labor tremendous power because without it the USA would probably have had a big communist party.
They also knew the deflationary period of the 1930s lead to the rise of fascism and nationalism in Europe. So the petty greed of capital was scarified at the altar to maintain peace. They were also willing to sacrifice growth to maintain peace.
We are going through a similar period of deflationary shock, so it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out and ends.
Most likely the source of unrest may not be US but China.
Github is flush with cash ( relatively speaking ).
Makes sense why they would go after them ( Microsoft ) , not that it will stick.
The US is the largest source for this type of engineering, other countries are simply not doing any of it.
The cost of buying a Ferrari is prolly lower than getting a Phd from Stanford on any of those topics.
The fact is companies are not willing to pay for the training etc for it.
There simply is not enough demand at the economic price point for it, or else companies would be spending billions in retraining.
Even I want to own a Rolls Royce and date Katey Perry.
China can import as much energy as it wants from Central Asia and Russia, it chooses not to because Saudi oil is cheaper.
China also is not as dependent on fossil fuels, due to extensive rail links between their major cities. Its just convenient to use jet planes, also the CCP actively wants to create a Boeing alternative.
If we do end up in a situation that becomes an existential threat to CCP:
- China would aggressively dump US treasuries.
- China stops exporting rare earths that even the US military depends on.
- China starts importing Iranian crude ( providing navy escort ).
- Chinese nationals are forced to sell their holdings in the US.
All of these things would cause a major financial crisis in the US, the Baby Boomers do not have the stomach for it and would vote Trump right out.
Anyway, you are right, the US doesn't depend on trade.
But 44% of US corporate sales happens overseas. A shutdown of global trade would be quite bad for the Chinese, but it would be worse for the "richest nation on earth".
> This is the fundamental mistake China made by keeping its economy so restricted and locked down to foreign companies. Most of the US economy doesn't have a critical dependency on China.
Why should the Chinese open their economy to US companies without getting something big in return ? US firms are not entitled to free access to anything outside their borders.
We know what Facebook, Google can do to a country, it's better for humanity if US companies are not given completely access to every market.
Most people in those countries do not consume large amount of meat, massively reducing their need for large amount of agricultural land.
Soil fertility is just part of the equation, does not explain Egypt, Pakistan and a multitude of other countries.
If we lived in forests mosquitoes won't be a problem, well at least all those activities increased GDP.
Markets can only exist when contracts can be enforced.
Being able to enforce a contract requires monitoring and ability to issue fines, you also needs appropriate laws.
All of the above does not exist when it comes to ground water harvesting - especially in India and even in a police state like China.
It's a principal as old as Life itself.
20 years ago the internet was less than 0.01% of global GDP. Tech will continue eating industries that are structured unfairly.
If the fed buys every USD bond in existence ( aka monetize the debt ) - it would lead to a good amount of inflation.