wnmurphy

> I am not fan of Musk, but one has to have some crazy blinders on not to give him credit here.

Tesla does have ~700k other employees.

I'm glad someone else gets it.

This would be a horrible deal for Tesla investors.

Long-term investors would lose about 40% of their investment to subsidize the inflated valuation of X (bought by xAI), the inflated valuation of xAI (bought by SpaceX), and SpaceX (whose valuation is based on the assumption that demand for inference is effectively unlimited, and that everyone will prefer hardware in space over Earth).

The valuation of both companies was inflated prior to acquisition, and Tesla shareholders will be asked to dilute their investment by absorbing that cumulative inflation.

Not even to mention that Musk would have exclusive control over the entire conglomerate, with not even the pretense of a Board to check his power.

When even Steven Mark Ryan is like "let's pump the breaks a little bit," you know it's bad.

Good lord, me either. I thought it was a gag reading through these comments, but there was no way all of these people commenting were that locked into a joke.

That was the final straw for me as well. Forcing you to log in to see old.reddit.com + forcing you into the app when viewing on mobile + the general toxicity just made it no longer worth it to use Reddit.

This administration has an impressive record of lying in order to manufacture charges against critics.

They also consistently lose in court once these charges are subjected to scrutiny. The point seems to be to merely manufacture bad headlines to smear the targets.

Prior to this administration, the feds had a 93% conviction rate. With so many frivolous cases falling apart in court, I'd be curious to know where that percentage is now.

Yes, and it's $30T when you include all knowledge worker roles.

Bingo. When that 1000% increase in spending on tokens represents a cost savings of 80% on knowledge worker labor, companies will happily pay it.

The other factor that threatens the $6T required to justify... open source models crushing the pricing power of these companies. If I can use some open source agent management framework + self-hosted Qwen to basically replace my entire Product org for free, then why would I pay Microsoft/Google/Anthropic/OpenAI?

I think what's lost on the general public who mainly thinks AI is ChatGPT, is that these companies are gunning for knowledge worker salaries. That by itself is ~$30T/year globally. Nothing else justifies the infra spend. Data center investment is a bet that they will be able to virtualize knowledge workers in the next 5 years.

Warehouse and factory labor is the next largest market for AI/robotics, at about $7T/year globally.

The bubble question is really about the target year. Will these companies start on a trajectory where AI begins eating these massive markets before investors lose faith?

To me it looks like one of these is true:

(1) this is indeed a bubble, and AI will turn into a useful tool integrated into everything but fall short of expectations. We'll see some significant multiple compression in the share prices of these core AI companies, but they'll remain good investments in the long term.

(2) this is a real transformation, the investment was worth it, and these companies will earn massive revenue while causing Depression-era levels of unemployment (24% if half of knowledge workers and factory/warehouse workers can get jobs).

Basically, the revenue required to justify the infra spend requires that they start eating existing industries, because that's certainly not going to come from ChatGPT/Claude subscriptions.

xAI mentioned a Memphis outage, which is where Anthropic was leasing capacity on Colossus 1. I do think this is the explanation.

Actually, nevermind... this looks more like Anthropic and xAI coincided due to shared xAI infra (6:23am and 6:30am), and OpenAI's issue was more likely then a coincidence (7:43am).

Curious then as to why the incident coincided with similar issues with Anthropic and xAI.

I just want to say thank you. The playa phone is a fixture.

I think in 2008 I walked by it and said "oh, that's a funny art installation." Then the phone rang, and I said "wait, what? is that a working pay phone?"

I picked it up and someone asked me if I was satisfied with my home insurance.