throwawaylaptop

Real world experience doesn't count on HN health articles. If it wasn't documented by a researcher paid via funding from his industry leaders, or a government official trying to fast track his hiring in the public sector for $800k a year, it basically didn't happen.

I default to statistics a lot more now, even if ballparked and made up in my head.. and it all stemmed from a different gf asking me "how dangerous do you think that was???!!?!" while giggling and high off adrenaline after taking her to around 155 mph on a Yamaha R1.

I thought for a second and said "idk, probably like 1 in 100 we would have died... Maybe even worse than that.. I don't think I could pull that off 100 times"

And that weird realization made something click and I've stopped doing stupid things.

The new me would have thought "hey, if 100 65 year old obese men with gout go hiking, at least one of them isn't making it back". 22 year old me thought "eh, he's just going to be slow".

Sorry, yes, I've had colds and a cough or two for sure. I don't think I've thrown up in 35 years though since I was a child.

When I meant sick, I meant like a longer sustained thing that needs treatment of some kind. I didn't mean I never stayed in bed watching the price is right for two days.

That's how I see it. Ive always felt a lot worse for the daughter too.

I don't worry too much about the butterfly effect because it goes both ways. Sure one stoplight here makes a guy die, but another stoplight over there saves a guys life.

But in this case, when it's a clear "either I put off changing my oil and washing my car, or this 250 lb senior citizen with gout tries going on a hike", it's a lot more clear.

Ha. That was more a play off the fact that most times "busy" is just relative.

I wasn't THAT busy, maybe I just had things to do that I wanted to get done more than go on a hike.

Its obviously not my 'fault'. But it's pretty close to a death I could have prevented for a while if I wasnt pretending to be busy probably.

I remember when she said her dad was going to go instead and I thought "uhh, I don't think that's going to work.. I should just go" but I didn't really like her that much at that point and figured it would just be a lame wasted hike, not that the dude would die.

Not everyone.

I don't think most people worry about the huge amounts of time after they have died. They worry about the 1-120 seconds while they are really dying and aware.

My college gfs dad died after trying to accompany her on a hike, because I was too busy to go and he didn't want her to go alone. So he drove down on the weekend and went with her. He was an overweight man that never moved.

~24 hours after the hike, which he skipped most of and waited mid trail, he started having a heart attack in his home office. I have spent a lot of time thinking about what he was thinking those last minutes or seconds.

And I wish I just went on that hike with her.

Regarding Steve Jobs, that's unfortunate for him because even my grandmother in Poland used to say "sugar causes/feeds cancer" when she tried to get us to stop sweetening our tea back in the 80s before we left.

Somehow she knew what several doctors and researchers are now documenting, that cancer cells have a much harder time growing without ample amounts of glucose.

Oh great, another expert. Except without the 30 years of research and experience.

One guy wins the nobel prize for detailing a function of fasting and its effects on the immune system and cell repair/death... But fasting doesn't help! We know this, because a guy on hacker news said so.

Op seemed to be freaked out about unknowns.

So my solution would be to look at historical data for earth quakes in his area so he knows basically what to expect.. that way when it starts shaking, he doesn't think "omg how big will this be?" And instead can know "ok this will be between 2.9 and 3.5 like the last 500 quakes in this area for 50+ years. Thank God no one has ever died in this area from an earthquake"

And then he can also know that he is prepared for even a much bigger quake in his area before... Because he prepared something.

This is obvious stuff. In case the guy I wrote to didn't know, now he does. If he wants to dwell in his neuroticism he can.

My father has a high rate PSA change a few years ago so I learned everything I could about prostate cancer for about 4 weeks.

I then talked to several doctors I know (family practice and two internal medicine).

It was embarrassing how little they knew. And even more shocking actually, is how wrong they were about things.

Two of them told me the risk of infection from a prostate biopsy was basically zero. I asked for clarification with actual numbers, and even led them with "for what kind? Like 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000?"

One said basically zero, the other said 1 in a million.

Neither knew to mention the two common types, and to make sure we go with the one type that carries less risk of infection.

Even then, the less risky one is about 1 in 1000. If you have bad insurance you might go with the older type which is about 1 in 100. And that's with them giving you antibiotics beforehand....

Basically they got everything I asked about wrong compared to specialists you can read online.

Ps, my dad got an MRI with two 1cm growths.

He changed his diet and added fasts, and did nothing else. His doctor basically writing him off in anger.

5 years later, PSA lower than before the incident. Paid for a scan last year, zero growth.

Internet/YouTube experts/doctors really do beat most general doctors. The odds of you having someone in the top 10% of their field, let alone top 1-2% in your local town is pretty low. Even my bay area doctor friends work at pretty basic general bay area hospitals. Imagine who's left in Modesto, CA.

99% of your problem can be solved by studying statistics for your area, and having a plan... So that you aren't just at the whims of the moment when it's actually happening.

I hope this is satire.