tgarrett
Joined 2 years ago
Joined 2 years ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messier_87#Supermassive_black_...
Fair enough, and yeah definitions are always going to be somewhat fuzzy. Still it seems safe to assume there are also a lot of novel things going on in games, embedded, finance, AI itself of course... Generally I can't help but feel that we have only dipped our toes into the vast ocean of program space, and I'm curious what else is out there.
It's a quite a bit broader than that: for instance most of science and engineering is heavily supported by simulations (very useful when the system you're considering doesn't have perfect spherical or cylindrical symmetry), and there is still tons of algorithm development going on. The world is vast, and thus so is the domain of programming.
And halfway through 2026, AI has become a very interesting and helpful partner in algo research too. If it does continue to pull away and zip off to ASI land, hopefully we can leverage the resulting magical technology and catch back up with it...
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...
The analysis is easy: copy and paste the data from that link into a new text file, then write a python script that goes through it and counts the number of Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 hurricanes that make landfall per year (the "Highest Saffir-Simpson U.S. Category" column), and then make the plots: I used gnuplot. You can then do fits to the data if you'd like, but the flat trend lines over the last 175 years are obvious.
I encourage you to not trust me and to do it yourself, but I'm also happy to share my script, let me know.
As far as the hurricane trajectory trend lines go, they are clearly highly stochastic: check out e.g. both the spaghetti plot predictions for various storms from previous years, and ask google for a map of where they grow (grew...) oranges in Florida.
You have to diagnose a problem correctly in order to have a chance at solving it.
This is the conventional wisdom, and it is completely falsified by the actual data that I linked to. I wrote a python script to go process and plot it, and there has been zero increase in Cat 1, 2, 3, or 4 storms hitting the US since 1851 (there are only 4 Cat 5s listed total).
Try it for yourself.
That's not correct: we have good data going back to 1851:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...
Search for "FL": hurricanes have been hitting Florida frequently for the last 175 years.