shmatt

Except a sudden dilution usually tanks the stock by the exact % its diluting

So GME dilutes by 20%, stock price immediately goes down by 20%. its not some infinite money hack

The lenders get their money back via management fees. Pretty much only the consumers and the employees get screwed over

Home owns are owned by people, not the home itself. If someone fails to pay a loan, their own credit score will be impacted

For these PE loans, its the new company that takes on the debt, not the buyer. Essentially any broke person can "afford" any trillion dollar company this way

eBay is dying, new competitors are being created constantly, and the big ones like Poshmark are getting more North American buyers and sellers. eBay has barely grown since their post covid slump

Maybe eBay survives as an international site but even at that point, with $20B in debt this will just follow the regular PE playbook of shutting down after many layoffs and pivots

The entire concept of, "I have $1,000 in the bank, im going to buy a $10,000 company, but the debt will be on the companies name, not mine" needs to pass. Can you imagine if the mortgage was owned by our home, not ourselves. And we could stop paying it without any personal consequences

If you want to buy a $50B company, you should pay $50B (loans are fine, but not putting the new company in debt)

Sam, Dario, and Sundar have the opportunity to create one of the funniest on call rotations in history

You had interviews scheduled longer than 45 minutes?

if you've ever been through a Meta loop (and their method is to cast an extremely wide net, so chances are you have), you've seen how inefficient their loop can be for long term success

6-7 38* minute interviews, while the interviewee is trying to squeeze in showcasing their skills and experience, the interviewer is obsessed with figuring out a rigid set of pre-determined "signals"

Once these candidates actually start work, their success in the team is a complete coinflip

* 38 minutes = 45 minute scheduled - 2 minute intro - 5 minute saved for candidate questions at the end

Labubus peaking and falling doesnt really say much about scarcity and trends. Labubu is made by a public company, who's stock skyrocketed, and essentially decided to go all in and mass produce to meet the popularity

thats one option. But other companies sometimes choose to keep the scarcity and secrecy for years, even decades, and if they play their cards right it keeps working

Labubus fall is more about its makers decision to increase sales numbers instead of keeping them flat and generating more and more and more hype

Hermes can sell a $15,000 Birkin to everyone, im sure they can figure out the supply chain aspects if they really wanted to. and within a month everyone that wanted one would have one and sales would drop. Hermes will have a spike in sales, followed by a drop

Instead they force you to play years long games with their sales staff to get an opportunity to spend $15,000. And decades later people still opt in to spending thousands of dollars on plates and scarves hoping one day they will be offered one

This is just as true about a $40 Supreme, or Aime Leon Dore T-shirt, than it is for a $15,000 handbag. If you keep the scarcity going just right, it lasts much longer

Also made in Japan

This actually works well the other way around.

When sales are still growing YoY (like the post covid market), but prices are up 30% or 40%, you understand your customer is still willing to pay the higher price

Its similar to a McDonalds or Starbucks situation where you just keep increasing prices dramatically until you get a first quarter of lower than expected sales, then you start adapting downwards

Most corporations still haven't hit that limit, see streaming companies increasing prices every few months, they still haven't hit the point where profits decrease YoY. When they do the streaming prices start decreasing

a company with 800 million weekly active users, and only losing $10B-$15B before implementing ads - which IMO is coming fast and soon to the LLM world - i would never calculate a 90% chance their shares end up at $0 before an exit option

This is the easiest money and best relationship JPM could imagine

This is literally the reason behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Debt keeps your cap table untouched, its very tempting at certain stages

Can you imagine Twitter/Reddit clients if the APIs were still free in the age of LLMs

In a way this is probably the future state - 1000 different clients for 1000 different people, each fully customized to their taste

At least from what I noticed - Junie from Jetbrains was the first to use a very high quality to do list, and it quickly became my favorite

I haven't used it since it became paid, but back then Junie was slow and thoughtful, while Cursor was constantly re-writing files that worked fine, and Claude was somewhere in the middle

IIRC status pages drive customer compensation for downtime. Updating it is basically signing the check for their biggest customers, in most similar companies you need a very senior executive to approve the update

On the other side of this, Firebase probably doesn't have money at stake making the update