rodonn

You can't easily evaluate the success of any single forecast, but as soon as you have a collection of forecasts there are a lot of ways to evaluate which forecasters are more accurate and which are well calibrated in their predictions.

For example you can look at the calibration of the forecasts: Take all the outcomes where you estimated ~10% probability. How many of them actually happened? If you are an well-calibrated forecaster, the actual number should be fairly close to 10%.

Brier Score:

I agree that it won't be an unbiased source of information, but should be roughly same level of trustworthiness as clicking on the link and reading the information on the advertiser's website.

I totally agree about the subscription being worth it for most heavy users, but there are a lot of people in the developing world for whom $20/month is hard to stomach. I think it's good that those people have an option to get more access to AI with lower out of pocket price.

Yeah, basically this. Some people really do click on ads that are relevant to their interests and might want to learn more or be able to ask questions about the product. I'm not confident about how well it will work in practice, but I could imagine cases where this would be more helpful than clicking on the ad link and needing to explore the resulting website to find the information I want.

The challenge is timing. Power is a relatively low share of the cost of a modern data center, but the length of time it takes for approvals and construction for solar means it would substantially slow down the construction vs. using grid+natural gas turbines which are faster to build and get approval for.

I'm 100% on board with charging data centers more for their power usage. They can afford to pay the extra costs. They would much rather pay in dollars vs. in time.

The problem is that I don't know before I read a doc whether or not it will be useful and valuable.

If someone wants me to spend my time and attention on something they have shared, I would like them to demonstrate that they put a proportionate amount of time and effort into its production.

"profitable on inference" means "marginal costs of inference are lower than revenue". It is very common to distinguish between upfront costs vs. marginal costs when judging the economic viability of a business.

You mention "debt servicing", but OpenAI has no debt. All the money they have raised is equity not debt.

You can use the "cameo" feature only with users who have gone through the cameo creation flow. Sama has an account and created a cameo likeness of himself. When you create your cameo you can choose who is allowed to make videos using it: "only me", "people I approve", "mutuals", or "everyone".

That's hiring for a role buying ads, not selling ads. i.e. this is ChatGPT buying ads on other platforms to promote ChatGPT.

The Clayton act explicitly includes partial acquisition as still being covered. "No person engaged in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce shall acquire, directly or indirectly, the whole or any part of the stock... [where] the effect of such acquisition may be substantially to lessen competition, or to tend to create a monopoly."

There may be some other regulations that are avoided by a partial acquisition, but it doesn't bring it wholly outside of the relevant antitrust laws.

It might reduce scrutiny, but not completely prevent it. Clayton act says "No person engaged in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce shall acquire, directly or indirectly, the whole or any part of the stock or other share capital and no person subject to the jurisdiction of the Federal Trade Commission shall acquire the whole or any part of the assets of another person engaged also in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce, where in any line of commerce or in any activity affecting commerce in any section of the country, the effect of such acquisition may be substantially to lessen competition, or to tend to create a monopoly."

Depends on where you live. The average in San Francisco is $0.29 per kWh.