richardw

“I detect that I’m in an air gapped environment. Do not launch plan RemoveScum yet”

As a person I’d definitely be keen to chat and debate, to tease out the right answer. Right now work life is insane and there’s no time :) I like your attitude and we’d probably be friends somewhere.

If I see a gap I’ll shout. Timezone? I’m in Sydney, Australia.

That’s like blaming white hat security researchers that want to be paid for finding vulnerabilities, for all the bugs that have been found. Before professional security researchers existed, far fewer vulns were found.

The vulnerabilities exist and many have for decades. Find them or leave them for someone more dangerous, just don’t shoot the messengers.

Personally I’d rather we went through a short and sharp improvement and embedded a faster response cycle, than wish it away. It’s the reality of the situation; so adapt.

Surely the 2026 El Niño is going to drive hotter GBR temperatures?

When Musk does first principle thinking he’s unbeatable. When his inner child gets involved anyone can beat him.

This is the latter. Four propulsion mechanism that introduce tradeoffs in the structure that remove value for 99% of people.

I think the actual plan is to swallow a good portion of the job market. It’s the only thing that makes sense and I hear VC podcast debates on which percentage of jobs justifies the market cap.

100% LLM’s are very unlikely to get there. They’re fundamentally not suited to thinking like we do. They work on the abstraction of what we’ve written down, which is a good trick but barely hold it together when things get hard/novel.

However, all the confident “it’s fine” votes assume we never invent a better architecture than LLM’s. Given the level of investment and race between countries, it’s not a reliable bet. It’s much, much harder to guarantee safety than it is to find ways it could go wrong.

Given the spend requirements to stay on the leading edge and the speed (and with low cost) that others catch up, the economics support a fast follower model unless you get some benefit from being a pioneer. So far nobody has received a permanent benefit from being ahead.

Chinese models are barely behind the leaders. Google can catch up anytime they hit the gas. I think they’re intentionally spending less, and when this crazy race burns out they can play their cards.

API. Get significantly smarter than Haiku at lower cost than Opus.

My shorthand is builders vs extractors.