revel

LLMs are bad at creative work and I don’t see them improving any time soon. Try asking an agent to write a story about raccoons. It will almost certainly involve either stealing food or raiding trash with a 50% chance of having a character named Pip. If a location is mentioned, it’ll be Elm Street.

I guess this is the average story and, similarly, the average game is boring and predictable

Awful news for everybody, particularly those in speculative tech jobs.

We may well look back at the attack on Iran as the American tipping point that caused the same kind of financial stagnation as Brexit caused for the UK.

Running benchmarks at scale and protecting against reward hacking is non-trivial.

What exactly do you mean by "career politician?" Being a member of the opposition in a dictatorship means giving up material wealth and putting your life & liberty on the line.

This is one cause but another is that agents are mostly trained using the same sets of problems. There are only so many open source projects that can be used for training (ie. benchmarks). There's huge oversampling for a subset of projects like pandas and nothing at all for proprietary datasets. This is a huge problem!

If you want your agent to be really good at working with dates in a functional way or know how to deal with the metric system (as examples), then you need to train on those problems, probably using RFT. The other challenge is that even if you have this problem set in testable fashion running at scale is hard. Some benchmarks have 20k+ test cases and can take well over an hour to run. If you ran each test case sequentially it would take over 2 years to complete.

Right now the only company I'm aware of that lets you do that at scale is runloop (disclaimer, I work there).

I was a big enough believer in crypto to literally start a company in this space only to leave it completely disenchanted and deeply pessimistic about the direction of the industry. I felt that there were many real legal and regulatory challenges that governments just didn't want to deal with. No government wants to enable money laundering, black markets, corruption and terrorism; or so I thought!

Now we're in a situation that's so much worse than I ever imagined -- Trump coins are vehicles for naked bribery and corruption with a sprinkle of encryption on top. I was worried about black markets, Trump has literally been using his office to grant access to top holders of his scam coin.

This is a big lesson for everyone about why some degree of regulation is necessary.

They used RFT and there's only so many benchmarks out there, so I would be very surprised if they didn't train on the tests.

That last point about differences between dev, test and prod should be right at the top. It's rare to find teams that have set themselves up for success (for reasons I do not fully understand)

I didn't get that impression.

Although you're right that there's likely no relationship between wives developing heart conditions and subsequent divorce, there's not enough information from the article to know whether there's anything statistically meaningful about heart conditions specifically. It seems more likely that it's just statistical noise. I read that section and got the impression that the relationship is interesting but it doesn't necessarily mean anything, rather than implying that the original study still has some validity.

In my opinion kubernetes is fundamentally hamstrung by the overly simplistic operator model. I really like the general idea, but it's not really possible to reduce the entire model down to "current state, desired state, next action." It means that an entire workflow ends up in the next action logic, but with so many operators looking at the same system state it's not really possible to know how the various components will interact. The problems with helm are a subcase of this larger issue.

By analogy, this is the same issue as frontend programming faces with the DOM. Introducing a VDOM / reducer paradigm (like react) would go a long way towards solving these problems.

QAnon (often shortened to Q) is the name given to the persona that has been adopted by a few different individuals and is almost certainly currently controlled by Ron (principally) and Jim (secondarily) Watkins. Calling the posts "Q intel drops" is coded language the tells me you are intimately aware of the QAnon conspiracy group. Let me be clear: Q is some random dudes larping on the internet to give their own pathetic lives some level of importance they do not deserve. Q is a fictionalized persona.

I don't mean this as an insult, but after looking through your post history, you should consider psychological counseling. I recognize the coded language you are using. I'm sorry to tell you this, but you are in a cult. These people are taking advantage of you.

If you have a subscription, the HBO documentary I mentioned, Q: Into the Storm is excellent. I think that the struggle mainstream news orgs have in talking about QAnon is that it's very difficult to encapsulate all the interlocking conspiracies and figures. There's also a wide degree of variance for what various bits and pieces mean, but there are a few central tenets. The main one is that there's a mysterious high ranking figure in the government, Q (who gets his name due to the Q-level security clearance he or she has). Q makes very abstract posts on 4chan -- and then other sites -- that seem to suggest that there's a massive pedophile ring inside the government and that Donald Trump is working to expose it from within. Many figures are implicated and, by strange coincidence, they happen to be figures that the far right detests. The Clintons and Bill Gates take starring roles but honestly it's impossible to keep track of it all.

Into the Storm is centrally focused on the identity of Q, but in the process of pursuing the answer the creator of the documentary, Cullen Hoback, ends up going on an absolutely wild hunt. I find documentaries of this sort to be a bit hit-or-miss, but this is one of the best of its subgenre. The subculture and background surrounding QAnon is interesting in its own right but, of course, the real highlight is the characters. Fredrick Brenan, Jim & Ron Watkins, and Hoback himself are fascinating individuals.

The contents of the letter are interesting in their own right, but there are 2 aspects that strike me as particularly interesting. First off, he doesn't seem to regret killing his wife, more the consequences of his crime. He doesn't mention her by name or say that she didn't deserve it.

Secondly, the person he's corresponding with, Fredrick Brennan is fascinating in his own right. He's one of the 3 central characters inside the HBO documentary, Q: Into the Storm, and has a totally bizarre relationship with Jim and Ron Watkins, the two figures currently steering the ridiculous QAnon set of conspiracy theories. It's a very strange confluence of interests.

Although no lead is insurmountable, the fixed capital investment and mature software ecosystem specific to this sector makes it harder to imagine what a competitor would look like.

Given how large the prize is, the next chapter of chip development is likely to be nvidia vs state sponsored projects. China, in particular, will funnel further resources into acquiring this technology by any means necessary, including (more) industrial sabotage and outright theft. It's going to be interesting to see how this will play out. Up until a few years ago China was viewed as being a formidable competitor for projects of this nature, but as the country has moved to become increasingly authoritarian, so too have its decision making and execution declined in quality.