radoomi

Take, for example, his 2016 prediction [1] that the Model Y would sell 500,000 to 1 million units annually, four years before its launch and even before the Model 3 was released. This would make it the world's best-selling vehicle, not just the top electric vehicle. How do people perceive such audacious forecasts? And how do they react when these predictions materialize?

Similarly, when Musk accepted a compensation package based on Tesla's value increasing tenfold within ten years, the company was still unprofitable and losing money. Remarkably, Tesla achieved this goal in half that. How do people view these ambitious commitments and their successful outcomes?

Recently, Musk claimed that Tesla's autonomous driving technology alone could elevate the company to a $5 trillion valuation, and with the addition of the Tesla Bot, this could rise to $30 trillion. What are people's thoughts on these projections?

And will they ever reconsider their skepticism?

Yes, some of his predictions are late (like FSD and the Roadster), but personally, I prefer someone who eventually delivers the seemingly impossible over someone who neither promises nor delivers.

I'm not saying it's not an issue, it's just that I'm very optimistic for the (near) future. And most of the scare comes from some very wrong estimates of expert's inability to recognise an S Curve of progress and not a linear one.

I recommend everyone to watch the Brighter series of videos from RethinkX [1]

Especially in episode 5 there's some graphs with every year's estimate of coal use and renewables that are really crazily wrong. I really can't understand how can "experts" be so wrong for tens of years and keep going.

It's already cheaper to install PV & Wind instead of any other fossil fuel alternative. And the price is only going down with scale. Also battery prices are going down so the problem of renewables intermittency will be solved as well.

Also, because of the fact that we need to have more power installed than consumption (because of intermittency) we will have more and more extra power (what Tony Seba from RethinkX calls Superpower or what we hear lately in news that energy price is negative). And with that what we can do is dump that energy into CO2 capture that was not feasible before because it was generating more CO2 with the power it used than what it captured.