quirino

The 80% is not the proportion of people who think he would win, that's not how these things work.

Every single factor was pointing towards Bolsonaro, Polymarket was just consistent with that.

He unexpectedly won the first round of the election. His lead was expected to grow since he'd likely get most of the votes of the other candidates. 17 out of 18 polls favored Bolsonaro. Market movements indicated a strong expectation of him winning. The Brazilian Real futures are already down 10% in the last couple hours.

But that's how democracy works, I think this election will be studied many times in the future.

Ted Chiang is incredible, my favorite writer.

I also recommend "Exhalation", though that has nothing to do with AI.

They're probably talking about the controller vs mouse and keyboard.

The rollercoaster on your landing page could use some better logic for when to restart. Or not do it at all. I kept restarting it automatically by moving a little bit.

I find this style of "heavy dark borders/shadows" one of the ugliest recent trends on the web. It's rarely done well.

But otherwise the website looks pretty great. Vibe coded websites usually transmit the feeling of: "nobody even bothered to look at this", and that's not the case with yours at all.

In your lists where elements are separated by horizontal lines, I would remove the horizontal line after the last element. That's quite easy in CSS.

The treadmills at my gym have a big display with YouTube. Each time I run for ~1 hour and watch one of those Walking Tour videos.

It's much easier to run with something to distract you from the pain of running. Time really flies by.

Tokyo is a great pick for this kind of thing. It's big, so I usually pick a specific neighborhood (Hiroo, Shibuya...).

atuin kind of fixes this habit, when you click up you get a list of the latest commands, and you can just start typing to search. It's extremely natural.

My experience in Brazil: Uber is way cheaper here. Compared to what I paid in San Francisco, I'd estimate a ~10x difference. And things here are rarely 10x cheaper. The difference in restaurants is probably less than ~2x.

My point being it probably feels like less of a luxury for us than for people in the US.

I'd say it's probably the most popular app too. I've never met people who used others.

I've been studying these a bunch for a project in university. Last week I went over the derivation of the ELBO for a couple hours and it was a very fun and elucidating exercise.

Once you give names to the larger mathematical structures and understand them a bit better it becomes quite simple. I wish some of the blogs/papers I'd read had named "Importance Sampling".

The probability notation can be pretty confusing too. Sometimes it's hard to understand the "types" of some variables. But I'm inexperienced.

ChatGPT was surprisingly helpful. If you put in the work to truly understand the where the gaps are in your mental model (which parts aren't completely intuitive), it can do an amazing job filling in the gaps.

I think many people would consider 60fps to be a minimum and 30fps to be almost disorienting, even for casual games.

Gamers often go for 120-240Hz monitors even.

A couple days ago they had published an overall score of 53 for this model, but that was removed and today it returned with a score of 56.

I wasn't able to find an explanation from them. Anyone knows what happened?

Sometimes I wonder, if I read a piece of Claude writing back in 2020, would I feel how alien it is? Would I be off-put?

It's still 50% off apparently. Listed as $0.10 for input (original price was $1.0 without this reduction or sale)

According to the link I mentioned above it's roughly as good as GPT-5.4. Haven't tried it in practice yet.

I bet it must be better in some contexts and worse in others.