quasirandom
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Joined 5 years ago
I like this point. I wish it would be reported as an "influence operation" rather than "misinformation". The most effective propaganda is 80% true.
In his talk, Len mentioned that most remailer security analysis assumes homogeneous Poisson email arrivals. He pointed out how bad an assumption that is for email.
I still think it was a solid assumption in the Bitcoin white paper.
https://leung-btc.medium.com/len-sassaman-and-satoshi-e483c8...
This kind of thinking has infected corporate America, which is optimizing return based measures--typically IRR--rather than profit based measures. That kind of thinking will lead you to believe offshoring your fabs is a good idea, because is reduces assets in the denominator.
On the other hand, financial thinking can help you better understand the world. One of the more powerful insights that comes to mind is Merton's model of corporate capital structure. It turns out that equity is "equivalent" to a long call on firm assets and debt is "equivalent" to a risk-free bond and a short put on assets.
Seeing things this way tells you something about how firms are run. Equity owners (management) have an incentive to increase asset volatility, which increases the call value. This value is taken straight from the bond holders short put. This is why you see buybacks in situations where buybacks seem crazy (Intel in 8/2020).
https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/ssundaresan/papers/Mer...