quarantaseih
Joined 4 years ago
Joined 4 years ago
Go look at the econ stats circa 2000 of Veneto, Lombardy and Piedmont and compare them to Germany's.
Typical Northern Protestant bigotry. As if Italians and Greeks don't have economics courses in college.
Italians, Greeks, etc would purposely devalue their currencies to effectively lower wages (which are sticky) wrt to international markets, making their exports competitive while manufactured imports more expensive. The French created the CFA (under the bayonet) to have a larger economic mass to play with (the most egregious post WW2 colonial abuse by Europe).
of course this policy results in (very well managed) inflation which results in the middle class saving through real estate, hence these countries' high rates of home ownership (Greece in particular).
So the single market (ie no protective tariffs) and a single currency are poison to Southern Europe's industry so why should the agree to it? They agreed under the condition that Germany's industrial appetites wouldn't be rapacious. Which was a great plan, after all when has Germany ever tried to swallow its neighbors? /sarcasm
So the Germans accept the Euro in exchange for re-unification (France's biggest mistake IMO) Thats one negotiating point.
Second negotiating point: who's in charge of the Euro? Who's industrial interests are represented by the ECB? Germany needs cheap imports (strong currency) or its industry screeches to a halt.
Who cares what the halving period is? You still have an inverted population pyramid. Have fun paying pensions. Even if you started popping 3 kids per woman today you still have 30 years before they become productive (debauchery during an Erasmus is not a productive use of time). How's Europe going to pay bills until then?
Btw, 3 kids / woman in Europe is a laugh - 70 years of technocratic rule have resulted in city infrastructure that are unlivable for "large" families. Sure, it's possible to have three kids in a two room 80 sq m apt, and I know people who have done so. But why would you if you have the qualifications to move abroad?
"Then there’s the second half. Europe has been vastly important worldwide from roughly the age of exploration to the end of WW2, and even then only stopped being temporarily because of active efforts by both of the two superpowers — who, despite arms reduction treaties, still have enough nukes each to destroy all settlements worldwide with populations over 150,000 [1] — and yet despite that the EU (less than the whole of Europe) has close to the same GDP (18 T) [2] as China (20 T) [3] and the USA (25 T) [3]."
I really dont understand how your point about nuclear weapons is germane to this discussion. Ill have to ask the French and Brits? Naw, Ill just ask the Germans who financed their welfare programs by gutting their defense budget safe under said nuclear umbrella.
As to Europe's post war relevance - Europe has no resources and the Asians have caught up, and surpassed, technologically. Where's Europe's competitive advantage?
Europe's GDP is not impressive. Actually, its trend is very bad. Look at Europe's share of world GDP as a function of time from the sage if Discovery. On top of that Europe's GDP is highly dependent on the tertiary sector, dumb things like "tourism" which has low margins and dulls the minds of the people involved.
Europe is not a going concern. Heck Im expecting a new debt crisis in the EU this year
The idea being, why would Italy, France and Greece agree to open their market and give up their currencies (ie ability to devalue) in the face of the German juggernaut? A joint market would destroy French and Italian industry and in-debt Greece - as happened.
<rant> The Euro zone was a mistake. Its premise was solid - the europeans no longer had the ability to have colonies to steal resources from, so they sought to create a large enough market to be relevant and muscle themselves into decent prices.
It failed because the US quickly made sure the euro never seriously challenged the USD. Also, a continent that makes < 1.5 children/woman is not a going concern so no one has ever taken them seriously. Finally, the rise of China and India sealed the EU's fate. </rant>
Thats what I get for asking AVIS for a large SUV/minivan for a family of 5 - my older daughters riding without a booster seat, wont fit.
It comes base with a three cylinder option? I want to cry. Every merge requires flooring the pedal and a prayer.
Which is the original argument here, namely that the EU has a large democratic deficit
The Italian president is un-elected (chosen by parliament).
Also, what does this mean for Spain, whose head of state is a King?
Im sure "head of state" means "effective ruler of the country", a PM in Italy, the president of France. But ut just points to the Byzantine rules the EU has created in 20 (or is it 30? Or is it 70?) years.
In fairness, I throughly hate the car (an X1). Terrible lag, awful throttle response, terrible steering, unpredictable brakes, etc.
But the two candidates for worst feature of the car are
1. The gear selector 2. The indicator lights
Every time I have to engage one of the two I let out a little curse.
I driven stick shifts, autos, rear wheel drive cars, trucks, front wheel drive cars, uHaul trucks, and manual motorcycles.
Ive off-roaded in CA, driven through blizzards, Mediterranean traffic.
This is by far my most hated driving experience.
However, I didn't state a statistical fact, or assert the effect of guns on the amount of criminality.
"Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime."
EV is expected value, not expectation. That is, I didn't say that crime is less likely. I said that a person who comes into a house in the US has a not insignificant chance of leaving on a stretcher, which I consider negative value from the invader's PoV.
So was I until I grew out of it. What's your point?
"Are you implying that Italians are inherently less productive than Germans?"
... yes? The data is very clear about that including significantly less cars made per employee hour in FIAT's Napoli plant than in, say, Poland.
I didnt venture an explanation as to why Neapolitans make less cars, nor do I care. The role of Rome, or any government, is to represent the interest of its citizens.
If Napoli makes less cars because there's less capital invested or because they all get sick during the world cup is of secondary concern to me. My primary concern is that the internal market ensures my citizens are employed in a dignified labor (and not that story of a woman offered 200euros/month to work 6 days a week as a cashier)
"but I have to say that I’m very surprised that this CFA thing is popular also outside Italian economic conspiracy websites."
The CFA is not a conspiracy theory, ask Congo (or Gaddafi. Or do a HN search in the bottom of this page), and you'll find websites in all languages talking about it. Especially French, but Ive read websites in Spanish, and in English.
The only language I haven't read about the CFA is in Italian, but the Italian internet is... dull.
"Or does “rapacious” mean that the Germans send assassins to kill good Italian managers?"
I think German appetites are well known in Europe going back a millennia. Im hardly the first to note that the Germans have, through the EU, accomplished exactly what they've wanted what they've failed to do in a thousand years of warring.
"So you are saying that when Italy joined the euro, they asked...."
Read my original comment. I clearly state that I dont know if it was in the treaties or not, however it is a common complaint that there supposedly was an agreement. I then explained why that agreement would make sense, since no rational actor could possibly enter a single market without some safeguards.