nwallin

The world is so dumb.

When I was young, I pirated because I was broke. I could afford a DVD or I could afford to eat that week. Food usually won. Sometimes alcohol.

I got a decent job, and could afford to spend on things, but I still pirated because it was more convenient than going to a store I wouldn't ordinarily go to.

Then netflix started streaming movies/TV to the home and I stopped pirating basically instantly. Netflix was more convenient than pirating. Steam started getting good, so I stopped pirating games as well.

Then streaming service got balkanized. It wasn't enough to pay for Netflix anymore. I am expected to pay for literally half a dozen services, and when I do want to watch something, I would have to flip around between half of them before I find the right service to stream it from. And now they expect me to watch ads?

Fuck that. I still buy games on Steam and GoG because it's convenient. I pirate TV/movies because it's such a fucking pain in the dick to consume that media legally. I just can't be bothered when piracy is so much more convenient.

So--first thing's first. Scientists know Dark Matter is not complete. Consider the progress we've made from the Copernican model of the solar system, to the Kepler model, to Newtonian gravity, to Einstein's theory of gravity. Right now, our understanding of Dark Matter is at the Kepler stage. We know what it's doing. We do not know why it is doing it.

But we have plenty of observations to lead us to what dark might be and what it definitely isn't.

Any theory of dark matter needs to explain all of the following:

1. The Virial Theorem, galaxy clusters, and the speeds of galaxies in clusters. (both MOND and CDM both do a good job of explaining this)

2. Galactic rotation curves. (MOND and CDM both do a good job of explaining this)

3. Accoustic Baryon Oscillations. (ABO) Immediately after the big bang, everything was ludicrously hot. The most powerful force in the universe was the wash of gamma rays everywhere. These gamma rays carried electrons around. The electric fields of the electrons carried the protons around. (the light dominated phase) As the universe cooled, this flipped; the protons were carried around by momentum, which brought the electrons with them, which mediated the light. (the matter dominated phase, where we are today) During the light dominated phase, sound waves pulsed through the universe, causing dense regions and underdense regions. When the universe flipped from being light dominated to matter dominated, these regions were frozen in time, and we can see them directly in the CMB. (cosmic microwave background) We can analyze the properties of these pressure waves to determine what the properties of the matter and light in the universe were. These waves demand some sort of dark matter. CDM explains these observations, MOND does not.

4. The Bullet Cluster. The Bullet Cluster is a collision of two galaxy clusters. We can measure gravitation lensing and light to determine where the dark matter is and where the regular matter is. The bullet cluster demonstrates that these two properties are not the same. There is matter which has gravity and gravitational lensing, but that we can't see. CDM explains these observations, MOND does not.

5. Ultra diffuse galaxies with very little dark matter. Not all galaxies have galactic rotation curves which require some extra sauce to explain the movement of their stars. Some galaxies are explained perfectly by the matter that we can see in them. So we need dark matter for most galaxies, but some galaxies need to be dark matter free. These galaxies falsify MOND.

6. Leading spiral arms in barred spiral galaxies. The large majority of barred spiral galaxies have their arms trailing from their bars, but a very small number of them have arms which lead in front of the bars. Computer simulations show this happens naturally with CDM, but MOND or dark matter free spiral galaxies don't have a mechanism to cause this to happen.

7. Gravitational waves travel at the speed of light. Most MOND formulations predict gravitational waves travel slower than c; all of those formulations are wrong.

There is a genuinely absurd amount of time, effort, and money that has gone into explaining dark matter. It is not a band aid, we haven't just added 1 to moved on. Everybody is pouring over every step of the algorithm trying to figure out why it's giving us the wrong answer. CDM is the leading hypothesis right now, because it explains all of the observations, and is not falsified by any of the observations. MACHO is/was another theory; it has gone out of fashion because it does not explain all of the observations and makes predictions we do not observe when we check for them. MOND is out of fashion because it is falsified by the data. MOND is still in fashion among a particular brand of people who just want to have their names in the history books; if someone did prove MOND, the history books would all have lists that go "Ptolemy, Copernicus, Kepler, Newton, Einstein, <your name here>."

But for Pete's sake it's not as if people have their fingers in their ears.

explanation of acronyms/terms:

1. Dark Matter. Dark Matter is the observation that the universe acts as if there's a lot more matter in it other than the stuff we can see. Basically no one says that Dark Matter isn't real; that would imply that the observations are wrong.

2. MOND. Modified Newtonian Gravity. MOND is a family of models which aim to explain the dark matter observation. Instead of using F=Gm1m2/r^2 to determine the force of gravity, we have better math, that gives a different equation, that accurately explains Dark Matter. When you say "physicists discover a much more logical explanation" that's what you're talking about.

3. CDM. Cold Dark Matter. CDM is a family of models which aim to explain the dark matter observation. CDM implies that Dark Matter is explained by particles. CDM implies there is some sort of particle of family of particles which interact with normal matter via gravity as normal, via the electromagnetic or strong nuclear force not at all, or via the weak nuclear force super weakly or not at all. CDM interacts with other CDM particles via gravity as normal, but only weakly via either the weak nuclear force or some other as-yet undiscovered force. People often use the terms Dark Matter (referring to the observation) and Cold Dark Matter interchangeably.

4. CMB. Cosmic Microwave Background radiation. After the Big Bang, the universe was opaque. Light would be absorbed by the stuff in the universe and then re-emitted. During recombination, the universe became transparent. The last moment of the various bits and parts of the universe switching from being opaque to transparent has the entire universe glowing in microwaves. This moment is captured in a snapshot, known as the cosmic microwave background. As we understand the CMB better, we learn a lot--a lot a lot--about the early universe.

Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should.

Microsoft has absolutely gone to shit in the past ~year. Github, Teams, Windows, Azure, Exchange, it's all been fucking trash. Github was running at 80% uptime for a few months, and if they're telling me they're at 98% or whatever now, then they're cooking the books, period. There's no way they're even that reliable.

What's going on at Microsoft? Are they just copy-pasting their github issue reports into copilot and hitting send it without doing code reviews?

Another pending example is the 2035 retirement of the E-3 AWACS and its replacement by the much less capable E-2D. There are/were other more capable options on the table, including the E-7 and the E-10, both of which have been canceled.

Aircraft carriers are not particularly well suited to be supplied by cargo aircraft.

The largest cargo aircraft with the strengthened landing gear, arresting hook, and catapult attachment used to be the C-2 Greyhound. It had a range of approximately 1,500 miles with a 10,000 pound cargo. It was retired on July 28th, 2026. The C-2 has been replaced by the CMV-22B Osprey. It has a range of only 1,150 miles and a more limited cargo capacity of only 6,000 pounds. 6,000 pounds isn't nothing, but it's not a lot either.

There's not a lot of stuff within 1,150mi of the Arabian Sea. Your two options are one of the US bases in the southern Persian Gulf (Kuwait is too far) and Diego Garcia. Neither are ideal. In both cases you're doing a transfer out in the field.

On the other hand, the C-5 Galaxy can carry 120,000 pounds to a range of 4,800 miles. You can fill it with food in the continental US, fly to Hickam AFB in Hawaii, refuel, and fly the rest of the way to Guam. On the return leg, an unladen C-5 can fly directly to the 22nd Airlift Squadron's home base California without a layover.

The C-17B Globemaster is smaller than the C-5, although it's nearly as capable. With a 160,000 pound cargo, it has a range of 3,200 miles, (the C-17A has a shorter range) which is just short of the 3,800 miles to get from Hawaii to Guam. I don't know how much cargo it's capable of carrying 3,800 miles, but on the order of 100,000 pounds is a reasonable guess. It is also capable of an empty flight back to the US without a layover.

> Honestly it’s hard to refute the fact that we need roads and houses more than we need cat videos.

If the software made by my company ceased to exist, every government in the US, federal, state, and municipal, every construction company, plus most governments worldwide would be unable to build roads or houses until they were able to cobble together a replacement.

The entire world runs on software. Software controls our banks, flies our planes, decides what happens when you press the brake pedal in your car. The bridges you drive, walk, or ride across were modeled in software and simulated to determine whether they needed to be built stronger. The power companies use software to route power across the grid. Software drives servos which determine how much natural gas and air get pumped into our power plants. Every day, power producers and power consumers bid on how much they will pay for electricity at certain times tomorrow, and all of that is automated by software. Judges and lawyers file motions electronically, routed through software. Two weeks ago, US President Donald Trump, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a memorandum of understanding, opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was in Versaille, Pezeshkian was in Tehran, Sharif was in Islamabad; the agreement was signed digitally, with software.

If every computer on earth stopped working tomorrow, we wouldn't notice the lack of cat videos, but we would notice the complete collapse of civilization.

A gps logger would likely be too heavy. The birds themselves only weigh 12 grams.

You can derive latitude from the length of the day. You can derive longitude from the offset of dawn/dusk. It won't be nearly as accurate as gps of course, but accuracy to a degree or two is really all you need.

> (I would upload as AV1 but the encoder is slooooooooow.)

If you're using libaom, try switching to libsvtav1. It's still slow, but it's slooow instead of slooooooooow.

The Motorola 68000 was roughly an order of magnitude more expensive than the Intel 8086.

I wonder if/when we'll reach the point that it's cheaper to manufacture SRAM (with 6 transistors per bit if I recall correctly) than it is to manufacture DRAM. (with 1 transistor and 1 capacitor per bit)

The transistors get smaller every year. The capacitors, like you say, don't anymore. At some point those 5 extra transistors will be cheaper than the capacitor, unless Moore's Law well and truly bites it.

My feeling about JavaScript is statistically speaking, random JavaScript code is more likely to be spaghetti nonsense than, say, the equivalent Python code. This feeling isn't based on empirical data, tbh it's probably as much anti-JS bias as it is experience with poorly written JavaScript.

Is your criticism of tracing specific to messy, confusing code, with lots of edge cases in the main loop, or does it also hold true for well written code?

I have no experience with compiler design, didn't even take a compilers course in college.

> AV1 software decoding is already very intensive

I think you might be misunderestimating how incredible the dav1d AV1 decoder is. Not only does it require less total time than the reference decoder to decode the same video, but it can spread that out over far more threads. I was unable to watch 4k 60fps av1 video on my media center PC (it's from 2019, so predates hardware av1 decoding, and, well, the CPU was a little long in the tooth) until I switched to dav1d. With dav1d I am now able to watch 4k 60fps av1 using software decoding, and my machine uses 10% CPU while doing so. Really amazing piece of software.

With any luck, the dav2d 5x claim will hold true, and 10% CPU usage will scale to 50% CPU usage, meaning I'm still able to watch 4k 60fps video on my media center without a hardware upgrade. (that machine doesn't have hyperthreading, so 50% cpu is actually 50%, not 100% in a fancy suit)

Wikipedia does not say that the Strait is Iranian/Omani territorial waters. Wikipedia says that Iran and Oman claim that the Strait is Iranian/Omani territorial waters.

Claiming it does not make it so.

A lot of people don't understand just how bad the 3d printer ecosystem can be. Most people understand how bad HP/Epson/Canon ink printers can get, but they really need to understand that 3d printers can be worse than that.

While I kinda sorta need my 3d printer more than my 2d printer, it's an absolute nightmare in a way that my 2d printer isn't, and it's caused entirely by the dogshit proprietary software I have to use in order to print things.