Recent submissions

Comment · 13 years ago
According to the first article, Shiller said in 1996 that stock prices were at irrationally high levels. In 2005, he predicted a real estate bubble. Noticing that a bubble is developing, I would say, is the relatively easy part; predicting when it will collapse is the difficult part. As Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", so there is limited value in betting against bubbles. Paulson may have made billions, but undoubtedly there have been people that followed similar shortly before he did, but lost it all. The reason we know Paulson is because of the survivorship bias.
Comment · 13 years ago
Though T-Mobile seems to have adopted an interesting strategy in the US - as a European customer I find their proposition not to be notably better than that of other carriers. Here, it takes European commissioners to lower international roaming charges. T-Mobile doesn't rock across the globe.
Comment · 13 years ago
In Amsterdam, there's almost no houses with garages. Put bluntly, this is why Amsterdam will never be anything like SV.
Comment · 13 years ago
I just spent 5 minutes looking up what all the acronyms meant.
Comment · 13 years ago
What's the problem exactly? Job growth has been stagnant for 5 years?

Productivity is the ratio of units of output per unit of input, where you can abstract input as being either capital or labor. Indeed, productivity continues to grow as a consequence of technological advances. When mankind started using oxes to plough fields, landworkers' productivity rose significantly. As we develop more tools to aid us in daily tasks, less labor - and sometimes even less capital - is required to perform those tasks.

During the relatively prosperous past decades, organizations have grown heavy, and were able to do so because of a continuously rising product demand. People started over-working and over-consuming. Then there was an external shock, media started talking about a financial crisis, people started being more considerate of their consumption in the face of job insecurity, and businesses that grew too heavy needed to get back into shape. This is a process that has significant feedback effects. The process of business getting back into shape means the cutting non-contributing jobs (think of excess layers of management), which by itself causes a growth in productivity. In this sense, employment growth and productivity growth can be negatively correlated, and it is not necessarily "technological advances" that drive productivity growth.

Telling us that technology is destroying our jobs is the same as telling us that China is stealing our jobs, though they may affect different industries (I don't see Chinese laborers replacing our butchers.) The thing is that the working population is very flexible, and despite offshoring certain jobs the average American still works over 50 hours a week. Population growth hasn't justified job growth in the US for the past 40 years, so perhaps a stagnant job growth is a good thing in that it draws things back to "normality".

Comment · 13 years ago
The website or post in no way implies that this is the case.

One reason to choose Syria is that the situation may be more acute than it is in most other places in the world at the moment.

One reason to choose programmers could be that this is also the industry that the founder is active in, perhaps making it easier to approach potential customers.

Comment · 13 years ago
I think it does hurt the NSA's recruiting position indeed. The NSA naturally hires mostly technical people, and in general I think it is exactly this population that is disgusted most by what the NSA is doing. For me, the issue wouldn't be as much about prestige, but more about morality.

As for the more general public, they're just following the news. The news has devoted a lot of attention to the NSA lately, but will move on to different topics sooner or later, and the general public will forget.

Comment · 13 years ago
If I were PayPal, I wouldn't primarily be focused on buying items, as it would be very expensive strategy. I'd try sending sellers email first, indicating that you are interested in purchasing their product and asking them if they support PayPal. Having thousands of sellers just visiting your site to see what this "PayPal" is about is a great way of getting your name out there at no cost.

Also, if I'm not mistaking, buyers have no right to force sellers to accept a payment method that the seller did not support. Of course you could try to persuade them after you've bought their product, but insisting goes way too far.

Comment · 13 years ago
Conversely, if you are graded on the curve, you want your coworkers to be provably lousier than you are.
Comment · 13 years ago
They might be selling it as a users' benefit, but in the case of the Amazon app, users are at a loss.

As long as the developers submit themselves to Apple's authority, Apple and its related products could offer superior service. Most developers are still accepting the "Apple way", even in cases where it hurts their own business proposition. The reason Apple has such a strong supplier power is that they have a very strong market share. However, Apple's arrogance will one day contribute to their downfall. Developers choose to develop first and foremost for the platform that offers the greatest benefits; as Apple's market shares are falling, the userbase is less of a reason to choose to develop for Apple first. Also, because alternatives are strengthening on various fronts, developers will be less likely to swallow Apple's authoritative terms if those terms hurt their own business model - even if that means offering a suboptimal service to Apple's customers.

Comment · 13 years ago
Comment · 13 years ago
This was a badly chosen example indeed: in many countries lawyers are obliged to continue studying and completing tests throughout the career. In fact, one of Holland's most prominent lawyers got suspended for not obtaining enough study points for an extended period of time.

Anyway, in a sense I agree with the author. To stay sharp programmers need to get out of their comfort zone. There's multiple ways to do that; side projects is one of them. If you don't get out of your comfort zone, you run the risk of becoming like a pilot who forgot how to land or take off, because you have only been flying mid air for so such a long period of time.

Comment · 13 years ago
I've abandoned purchases as well. When I know I might be missing out on a coupon, I go hunt for it. Most of the time I don't find the coupon I'm looking for, but I do stumble across (coupons for) other products, which might offer a better deal. I end up purchasing those, or not purchasing anything anymore.

Instinctively I agree with the author: when a customer has effectively made a purchase decision, a webshop shouldn't divert him to random pages on the internet, unless there is a mechanism in place that leads to extra sales. Showing a coupon box during one of the final phases of the purchasing process is a way of diverting customers to random pages on the internet.

Comment · 13 years ago

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