newby

You say it yourself - you should not feel anxious given your situation, but you do. You need to address your baseline anxiety. Anxiety always finds some reason "why" (i.e. current instability, war...) but often the root cause is deeper and personal - I am speaking from a personal experience.

Consider therapy. Other things might help as well. Sleep more. Rest more. Work less. Find time for some physical activity. But at least in my case, finding and addressing the root cause(s) was the key (followed by years of un-learning of some unhealthy mental patterns).

I would estimate that they made even the Russian-controlled areas much less stable. So if their plan was to extract natural resources... they seem to have torpedoed their own plan? I don't know, it does not make any sense to me. But honestly, the whole invasion does not make any sense. I fail to see any "rational" (however immoral) explanation that would seem believable and I tend to view it in terms of ideology gone haywire, perceived grievances, humiliation and revenge... those models seem to fit better than "rational" models like access to natural resources, protection from NATO etc. Just my $0.02.

It would be extremely hard (if not impossible) to extract and transfer those resources under constant attacks by Ukrainian resistance. To suppress that resistance would require so much money (and soldiers) that it would probably bankrupt Russia. At the same time, the extraction of natural resources is threatened in Russia itself, because they use western financing and tech to do that, western companies are now leaving and it is not so easy to switch to China.

This might sound weird but people sometimes use strange mental tricks to calm themselves down - it helps me think of it as me being a little part of history. My grandmother lived through world war and occupation by Germans, revolution, counter-revolution, invasion and occupation by Russians, another revolution, unusually long stretch of pretty good years and global pandemic. So far I only have one occupation, revolution and global pandemic under my belt. But who knows what the future holds.

Why pull down your pants when the ford is still far away? You being drafted is extremely unlikely... however, if you want to be mentally prepared, consider this the preparation. You feel anxious (me too). In a few days, we will get used to it. And when something even tougher comes, we will get used to it too. You are already a lot tougher than you were two years ago - you just survived global pandemic.

It often helps to do something with others instead of worrying at home. Any chance there is some refugee center close to where you live where you could help Ukrainians or someone?

I see the word "метеорита" in the original source, which is indeed meteorite (+ declension). I do not think it could be mistranslated as artillery or missile, although I am not a native Russian speaker (I had to learn Russian at school for 3 or 4 years and I have forgotten most of it, it was a long time ago). I think the writer was going for a metaphor, a made up example of being tasked with preparing for something considered so improbable that the preparation was de-prioritized.

I did not know about that aspect of nuclear plants and in my non-expert view it would be a major point against nuclear plants in the discussion how to solve climate change (at least until we learn how to secure them in case of a war). Am I wrong?

EDIT: I would also like to ask if you can recommend some source where curious layman with no knowledge of physics could learn a bit more about this.

There is one thing I do not understand and I was hoping you (or any other person who knows a lot of Russians) can explain: I hear that Russia and Ukraine have many personal connections from the past. I happen to be from the Czech Republic and I imagined that it is probably similar to our relation to Slovakia - we used to be one state, many people having friends or relatives in the other country, mutually intelligible languages, mixed marriages... I always assumed that personal ties are stronger than propaganda (if I know that my Slovak brother in law and all of his friends are not fascists, I would hardly believe the propaganda claiming that they are). My view was obviously incorrect, but how? Did I overestimate the connectedness between Russia and Ukraine? Or underestimate the influence of propaganda? Or something else?

> There are obviously now messages coming through condemning US and EU for their actions in various conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Kosovo etc.

However strongly I am angered and scared by the current attack on Ukraine, I am also deeply shaken by questioning my own views. If one nation can be brainwashed into thinking that they are saving Ukraine from fascists, and they do not know they are brainwashed and think the other side is brainwashed... what am I brainwashed into? I already know I was also deceived big time (I totally believed that lie about WMDs in Iraq), what else is there? And I know that it can be argued that "western media" is more open and pluralistic, but don't Russians think the same about their media?

After seeing Brexit, Donald Trump, Covid, now Ukraine... we humans really need to figure out how to improve our ability to converge on models of reality closer to what really happens.

Anyway, thank you for shedding some light on the views from someone closer to Russia.

I am worried about Putin's actions and proclamations too but I do not understand why that specific video of Putin talking to his spy chief is referenced so often in this context. When reading about it in the media, I expected a "terrified mouse facing a cobra" scene, but when I was actually watching that video, it did not feel like that. I had bosses that were way more verbally aggressive than that and I would certainly be shaken a bit if I were scolded and humiliated by them in front of other (probably important) people ... and that is how this video looks like to me. Maybe people see more in the video because this is how they would feel while being scolded by a psychopath with nukes? Sure, maybe I am just reading that body language wrong, but I would think that someone faint-hearted does not became a spy chief in Putin's regime. That guy might be what Putin was 40 years ago.