mbesto

If models got smarter and an average prompt response used let's say 5k tokens instead of 10k tokens, would that change your prediction?

Point is, the number of tokens is a silly metric to proxy these companies' growth.

Isn't prompt injection just one facet of the trifecta? Like, I just don't know how it's remotely possible to have a non-deterministic block box ever deterministically know whether your credit card has been compromised or not. Even if you were hacked, how would you even know?

Am I missing something, how is there any sort value in these assistants acting as agents on your behalf when they are basically a black box? Like if it can't use my drivers license or my phone number or my credit card, it can't do 75% of things people claim it can do without being massive security issues. What am I missing?

For the record I use OpenClaw but it has its own services (gmail address, phone number, etc.) and I don't give it any of mine, which inherently limits its capabilities.

Ding ding

> Why would i bother? I pay $100/m for the frontier model, understanding it's marginally better than much cheaper alternatives. I get so much value from the product it's not worth shopping around

Wait until you are forced onto an enterprise plan...

They're already useful. People are shipping real products with them.

Also, it's entirely plausible that an previously open model (that then became closed) will be much easier to distill than having a bunch of closed models.

I agree it's hard to predict.

It's very possible given the current environment that LLMs go the way of airlines. Low margin businesses that are essential to world economics with heavy price competition.

If thats the case, the parent's critique was oddly stated and confusing. The phrase "to do it" implies the "LLM puffery" was required to accomplish the task, which clearly providing LLM generated praise isn't required in either setting to create a world in minecraft.

> Collecting incomplete or incorrect data and adding a hunded disclaimers at the end of the report is standard LLM behavior. Actually valuable analysis of this sort needs a lot more human effort.

Or it's classic modern journalism that gets clicks. LLMs are just mimic'n human behavior.

This is pure speculation. This is like saying blockbuster films no longer have a camera operators rigging pro level cameras because sony came out with the alpha series. I suspect that the number of new people NOT using IDEs (e.g. using Claude Code, Codex, etc.) is growing rapidly but it may not necessarily mean that less people are using IDEs.

> Will it? Are you willing to test this?

Yes, this literally happens all of the time today. Proof point - software development organizations hire to fill operating budget voids, not on what work needs to be done.*

*Source - I've seen 900+ software team's P&Ls and interviewed their CTOs.

$200...PER YEAR.