maxnevermind
Joined 10 years ago
Joined 10 years ago
Have you ever worked on existing code base that has components that makes no sense but must be there?
You will have to wait great amount of time for great things just as you did before.
LLMs are not AGI, if so they are not foundational technology, if so we can't really built upon them - we can just use their wrappers as productivity tool, if so we will be bottleneck by what we were bottlenecked before: corporate bureaucracy, slow physical world innovation pipeline, supply chains, just a small number of actual problem solvers/risk takers around, etc.
There will be of course a lot of attach LLM wrapper and improve productivity here / there underwhelming weak fart products, ex: Meta Muse.
I find my self going opposite direction recently. I start using frontier models less and less and smaller models more and more. I recently tried Opus Opus 5 with ultra-code level of effort and I wasted like 2 days on trying to migrate some project to new libs because it spits out a huge wall of text as replies/plans and waste huge amount of time on things I didn't ask it to check and see no point in checking. At the end I just took a smaller model and used it in more controlled fashion playing the role of orchestrator/planner. Smaller models are good enough and also much faster. My collisions from that, frontier models and high reasoning effort levels are for pure vibe-coding when you don't really control or understand what is happening. My application area is not pure SWE though, I didn't churn a lot of code before and I don't now, so I have enough time on understanding/polishing my projects if needed.
Yes, It is not sufficient but I would argue it was necessary. In case of China it allowed them to have a set of domestic copycat companies like Baid, Alibaba and Tencent, that enabled high demand for local engineers to serve their needs and that allowed to have a large pool of competent domestic engineers which now can benefit other emerging sectors too. It keeps surprising how many top contributors to large OSS projects are from China.
Are/were you in a position to make such decisions or it is a guess? I'm not but given certain evidence I doubt that few percent will cut it. I know some of the richest companies on the planet from SF Bay Area who won't give lunch for free to their engineers. So I'm not sure about "few percent" :-D 10x we were promised, now that is more interesting but we all know that 10x engineers is nonsense.