manic85
Joined 12 years ago
Joined 12 years ago
Here’s my build order - 3 market rate projects in supportive supervisor districts, ideally in areas without heavy neighbor or coalition opposition (use the heat maps). Pay the in lieu fee or else risk the projects not penciling by the time they’re approved - 2 mega projects - mission rock is the best one, then pier 70. Waive prevailing wages, then Spend 2.5M on campaigning mission rock and offer community benefits
Spam community meetings and permit expediting. Don’t agree to labor agreements, don’t give density unless the commission denies your approval. This should get you past the first two investor reviews. Ideally you can complete a mega project, which gives you a buffer to option a bunch of marginal land
Then pivot to affordable around 2020 when everything stops penciling. Max out density bonuses. Start picking up projects that almost pencil but not quite because you’ll need them to get past the reviews in 2027 and beyond
Keep spamming community meetings and permit expediting, and always pay to save on build time unless your in the 20-25 doldrums where nothing pencils. Keep your pipeline full and you should win
For all those who try to compare this to subprime, there's two big differences here. First, decentralized lending is enforced by smart contract -> the banking apps dont take credit risk because they can auto liquidate defaulter's assets and collect a 10-20% liquidation fee for doing so. Second, decentralized lending apps max out at 60% LTV. People are either going to be safe and do 30-40% leverage which protects against 33-50% drops in the value of the collateral, or they are going get liquidated at 60%. There's no too big to fail here.
Journaling helps document progress and provides notes that you can transcribe to a spaced repetition system (i.e. flashcards) for long term retention.
Self-compassion is key for picking yourself up after you feel overwhelmed by a topic and quit for the day, which will happen. You have to not be so hard on yourself and understand that there will be good days and bad so that you can build the long term stamina needed to see the project through.
Having something to prove (i.e. I'm a business guy but I can learn coding too; I know I'm smart enough to score high on the GMAT/LSAT whatever and get into the school of my dreams, etc etc) is often what motivates me the most. It gives you that "why" that you need to keep yourself focused on finishing in the face of so many distractions until the project is done.
On another note, the federal funds rate is at zero but bank stocks are cratering anyway, possibly because Trump announced there will be no foreclosures/evictions through April. So landlords and homeowners have no incentive to pay their mortgages for a couple months, which will definitely hurt banks.
Bitcoin crashed as well and gold isn't overperforming either. So rather than having a huge transfer of assets from stocks to bonds/gold/bitcoin like we've seen during past periods of market volatility, I think we are seeing falling prices across all the forementioned asset groups.
The one open question for me is Real Estate (I work for a small commercial real estate developer). REITs are down 20%. My contacts in the Broker community have told me individual property sales transactions have dried up due to an inability to do property showings combined with no interest from buyers or sellers to make big moves until things shake out. RE moves slow so we haven't yet seen how this dynamic will impact sales prices.