lanthissa

I don't see anything obvious about that at all for amazon in the book selling days.

dog food is heavy, and a repeat purchase that often requires its own store and brings no joy. Its the ideal thing to get delivered to your house on a schedule.

books are something you choose differently everytime, and the people that like them read recreationally.

Bezos was on another level, launching a successful company(online books) that was effectively just a way to boot strap into an everything store.

anthropic has come up with a lot of the core successful consumer facing tooling/standards around ai.

they invented mcp, terminal coding agent, context files like claude/agents.md.

I have no real clue whos going to win the model race but they have repeatedly shown that their internal taste is on point, reminds me a lot of early google.

what ball? they're spending 100% of cashflow, taking out debt, and issuing stock. so they're not conservative on capital investment, they're growing at 103%.

You cant: 1) win the personal agent (requires a vm for every user) 2) win cloud sales (requires selling your compute) 3) win model war (requires using your compute) 4) win the chip war (requires selling your tpu's themselvs)

Weirdly enough their issue is they're to small to fight every battle, MSFT+Nvidia+Meta+Oai+oracle is like 14T in market cap.

lumping those all together is missing half the point, ng in at least in the us where its a by product of oil extraction is a huge step up from coal/oil and will be with us for a very long time

this is why antigravity is a doomed product at a pro level.

they gave away so much pro that they need to have smaller usage levels than competitors or they'll lose a ton of money. $20 was already a loss for users actually using their quota. the majority of pro users are paying far less than that.

so they'll lose their paying users, and keep their free or subsudized, which will make the economics even worse.

net net, 3 billion dollars is going out of of a rich persons pocket and into education.

thats a good thing.

also a cmu grad claiming the morality of the money going into education and naming rights matter is hilarious.

both its founders were worse than ken, and again at least hte money went to something good.

deepswe vs frontierswe spread is huge.

I think that should be a really bad sign, but hope its great.

cutting edge fable is for them not you and they're not going to share the metrics until they give you access.

icbms and hypersonics exist, theres no defense against the top end anywhere atm.

if you're in a war where people are shooting your satellites out of the sky you're past the point where defenses matter. theres no grey war in space like russia hiring people to blow up stuff in europe and very few states could take out multiple satellites in space.

beyond that if we ever did get to that point, you could develop anti missile tech in space, you effectively have the high ground sitting at the top of the gravity well.

5 million messages, 300b output tokens, done in 5 days, and achieving something humans couldn't.

the first "Country of geniuses in a datacenter" moment.

over 5 days, you couldn't achieve that level of testing and communication with humans on such a complex problem in that amount of time.

some might go so far as to call this a country of geniuses in a data center.

this is exactly whats happening. Its funny having lived through this with snap dragons and phones.

Everyones hyped about the branded phone, but it was the chip that mattered and how fast you rushed a product out after you got it.

Sames true now, except size of training run is also a factor.

what we're going through is the same thing as smartphones, the limiter is compute.

it used to be snapdragon came out HTC rushed out a janky phone everyone went omg htc is goat, then in the next few weeks and months others would impliment better versions and people would not notice those as much, finally sony would release a polished phone right as the next snapdragon cycle came.

eventually compute gains leveled off and apple won on taste.

nvidia/tpu is the new snapdragon. Anthropic and google both peaked on the first training run on a new tpu cycle.

you should expect amazing things within a few months of each other from everyone with access to chips and willingness to use them on a training run.

We haven't seen willingness from google to do that. So its currently xai,oai,anthropic, and probably soon meta.

if all it could do was operate a lawn mower and a shovel, the annual value to a homeowner in the north east is ~1-2k depending on lawn size assuming they value their free time at the same amount as their hourly wage.

what you have to keep in mind is homeowners salary is way above avg salary so anything you can do to effect them has a much larger impact than it would seem at first.

they're subsidized if you max them out, i'd imagine most users are paying $20 for maybe $2-5 of tokens.

anthropic probably has more customers that use more of their sub, but for open ai where a lot of their subs are consumers through chatgpt.com, they have a lot of free money to work with there