kevinstubbs

Answering your questions - Will be this the situation for most tech companies or just start ups I expect companies that are still looking for PMF using VC money to die. This is essentially a population bottleneck (1) for certain classes of companies (pre-revenue) & verticals (crypto).

- during recessions recruiting slows down even for big profitable companies[?] The job market overheated for companies doing traditional sourcing, salaries were bumped across the whole industry to retain people, and still a lot of people left. I am sure that some companies overcompensated for this and are going to be burned if last year they went overboard with hiring & retention and this year the market blows up. I don't have an inkling as to which companies to watch out for, but some have already announced layoffs.

- What companies or roles will be more resilient? Companies - big blue chip ones are always safe and look good on a resume. Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc. aren't going anywhere. Even if you join Meta and get laid off due to their bad VR strategy.. it still helps your career by having joined them in the first place. Roles? Anything that existed a couple years ago is fine. Anything brand new like "head of remote work" I wouldn't be so confident about.

- And how as a SWE / tech industry professional, specially the ones starting their careers like me, can prepare? Just keep interviewing at companies with established engineering teams. Don't go somewhere with just 1 or 2 developers, or where engineering isn't the core of their business. This is where good talent goes to languish. I've seen too many people come out of these companies with years of "experience" but it was learned in isolation without somebody experienced helping to shape them into a real middle of senior developer; The worst thing you can do is rack up the years without the actual substance. It's like not MSFT or others are tough - it's just everybody you work with will teach you something new that it's unavoidable. In a tiny company you have to figure out everything by yourself or follow trends, which are less than ideal.

- Is demoralizing to find out I spent 4 years in school just to get into a really harsh job market You are entering almost the best market ever for developers. If you're good, you can get a job anywhere in the world right now at way above nominal rates (if you know how to negotiate).