kayaeb
Joined 8 years ago
Joined 8 years ago
And new types, like thorium salt reactors don't have classical issues like uranium waste products and much much smaller possibility of runaway reactions. And France has been "5 years away" from fusion reactors for like 30 years on a shoestring budget, with real money that could be a possibility in maybe another 30 years and also dodges all the horror-story problems.
Overall, I agree, modern solar, especially reflector-steam plants shouldn't be lumped in with silicon panels, especially when talking about total carbon footprint. But I do think nuclear carries a lot of unfair baggage that has kept us on oil for way longer than we should have been.
Handling a plant going offline is totally different from the logistics of shuttling variable regions of production across the entire country.
Renewables that are popular now, like solar and wind, are weather dependent, which means the grid needs to handle variable input, which it's not designed to do and would need major fixing. Also means you need to store the energy for when it's not abundant, Germany does this by pumping water into mountain lakes to produce hydro on demand, but they've run out of lakes, so you need batteries. Batteries of a grid-size magnitude need carbon-expensive materials and have their own plethora of problems.
These two problems are only feasibly conquerable in a reasonable timescale by a few countries, for others they are prohibitively expensive, far beyond the small subsidies proposed in things like the Paris Accord. Now, sure, USA, Europe could implement these, but it's not going to fix the problem if Asia, Africa don't, and additionally it's going to add significant economic and geopolitical pressure between these nation-blocs, those who are hamstringing themselves and those who aren't.
Hydro has serious geopolitical issues as fresh water supplies grow more tactically necessary, consider Egypt / Ethiopia right now with the Nile, or China's tibetan plateau snow-seed cannons to capture water before it reaches India.
Tidal has extremely short lifespans, any moving system in salt water is difficult to keep going for more than a few years.
Geothermal is good, but also one of the most expensive and a bit of a "slow burner," not going to be powering anything serious with that without sinking billions into the plant.
The only real solution I see is nuclear, but that's a naughty word for some reason.
There is a huge problem in academia where the number of PhDs is growing exponentially, and the number of positions is staying basically flat. I strongly disagree with this "participation award" mentality of "you deserve it." It's... leading a lot of people to make really stupid career decisions and I think a lot of people are doing it just to get this gilded club to bludgeon people who don't have PhDs -- that's the only reason I can think of for a person to hope for an "easy" PhD experience.
My advisor being rough at the right times (and in good spirit) was absolutely essential to the defense, which is essentially gladiatorial combat against your father (well, mother in my case), when both you and your advisor hope you can defeat the master in your specific realm. I would not have been able to do it if my advisor pranced about making everything pleasant and easy and convenient.
I've never had a prof insert my work into their own papers, they've hooked me up to contribute to other teams, but with us it was always "my" project.
If you get a chance to see them present at a conference (lots of these are on video online nowadays), check if they specifically mention their students in the presentation, that's a green flag.
Also the union hooked up like BBQs and whatever so like, that's nice.
I don't care how smart a student is, they are in no way prepared to select a project that will lead to interesting findings, which is a must if you plan to continue in any capacity. A good mentor will have a project with proprietary data that has a 95% chance of successful publication. In this way the student won't get scooped (not through any fault of their own, it's just that a PhD student, even a good one, just can't compete speedwise with someone like me who already has a code library built up to do complex analyses, this is why proprietary data is essential, or an extremely good prof who has an idea that they are confident no one else is on). My projects were a mix, I had one with proprietary data, and one which was a legit eureka finding. But as you say, most profs just aren't good enough to do these Eurekas (not an insult, 90% of science is gruntwork), so they need the cloistered data playground that the child student can crash around in until they manage to build their horrible little sandcastle. That data depends on funding, which depends on a proposal, which depends on a promise to do project X on data Y, and the prof is going to get reamed next time they apply for funding if student Z decided it wasn't "fun" and went to some other prof.
Caveat: We had one turkish guy who was straight up getting academically abused by his advisor (like literally timing his lunch breaks, sending spies to make sure he attended class, super weird shit), and thank the heavens there was a judicial oversight in place for him to get a new placement.
Caveat the second: I thrive in a low-input environment, so my prof just put me in the sandbox and I built the most magnificent and beautiful sandcastle the world has ever seen and roared my way to a whopping like seven citations (lol). My prof was also the director though and the low-input environment wasn't like optional, and not everyone did well in this low-input environment.
But yes, overall China is executing an excellent "brain drain" (not meant in a negative sense) by being willing to invest in these "keystone" projects when other countries are tightening budgets.
This is correct to an extent, the surface of a mirror needs to be polished to a degree such that abnormalities in the lens are small relative to the wavelength being observed (I think it's the diffraction limit equation, not positive atm). Radio telescopes (with cm wavelengths) require much less precision than optical ones (with sub-micron wavelengths). This telescope, FAST, actually is made out of a collection of triangular (I think) sheets arranged into a kind of dome, if it were observing optical it would act like a disco-ball instead of a parabolic mirror. Arecibo is literally a hole in the ground with rocks and crap on the reflector.
This thing actually had "first light" observations with several holes in it from triangular sections that were fritzing just kind of fluttering in the breeze. The first radio telescopes were literally built out of post-coldwar trash just kind of rigged up in the back-yard. There's a major array going in in south Africa where the antennas are like christmas tree wires that are just kind of hammered into the ground, one of the PIs showed video at a colloquium I attended of his 10 year old kids setting them up. If anything in modern science can be called "low specification" it's radio telescopes.
"it’s time to panic." "We are in deep trouble." "That’s it. Forever." "Forever. Think of what that word means."
Disregarding that, the paper seems to address the idea that stratospheric albedo modifications cannot counteract atmospheric carbon buildup since they operate on timescales of decades versus millenia. Specifically they state that:
"Deployment of albedo hacking does not in any way “buy time” to get carbon dioxide emissions under control, since once emitted, carbon dioxide cannot to any significant extent be unemitted with known economically feasible technology"
Which seems to rest on the absolutist premise that we will never know an economically feasible way to go negative carbon. Otherwise, buying time should absolutely be a reasonable thing to consider.
The author closes with a sentence along the lines of:
"To decarbonize, however, requires building a political movement that regards the climate crisis as a top priority."
Which strikes me as... not exactly impartial (Why would not an economic reason work? Or a grassroots social reason?). Which is obnoxious when the author makes specific appeals to the authority of their profession which has authority by the very virtue of being impartial:
"As a scientist, I viscerally dislike repeating myself; I like to think that once the truth is out there, it will somehow win out and it is not necessary to belabor the point."
This "article" rubs me wrong.
I saw Pavel Kroupa (big name in Milgromian gravity) present in Heidelberg (big concentration of Astro), at the time Volker Springel (author of widely used LCDM simulation code "GADGET") was there and Illustris simulation sets (LCDM major project) had just been rolled out. And Pavel basically got heckled (in a very erudite and respectable way, but constant interruptions from the LCDM majority audience).
But Pavel had one slide, I can't find it now, but it was like 72 different problems that LCDM had not solved (ok, 72 is an exaggeration; you can troll his website for mentions of a lot of them https://astro.uni-bonn.de/~pavel/kroupa_SciLogs.html).
And like, Pavel's a big boy, he has some of the most cited papers in all of astronomy, he's got tenure, and he's set, so he can take it and not care. But grad students / postdocs I imagine would constantly have their work politely ignored and get shunted into underfunded groups.
I'm just trying to say that LCDM has things it can't explain, and MOND has things it can't explain, but the amount of resources in each theory is seriously lopsided so LCDM can frequently "tweak" itself to solve problems that MOND just doesn't have time or resources to to the same (for example disk formation in LCDM models used to be impossible until they had the supercomputing resources for the resolution required, and they found that the feedback coefficient could a) not promote disk growth, b) promote disk growth, and c) destroy disk growth, depending on how much they cranked it up. That's NOT a triumph of LCDM making an amazing replication of the observation, that's some grad student in a lab with enough CPU to tweak a meta-parameter until it looks good.
Also the CMB is extremely tightly constrained... and multiple huge tightly-constraining studies, WMAP, PLANCK, Gaia, are more than 3-sigma outside of each other's results, so... perhaps too tightly constrained.
Edit: Found it, here is the great astronomical bloodbath of 2014: LCDM (Springel and Rix) vs MOND (Kroupa). Great watch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPVGDXNSBZM