jvm
Joined 16 years ago
Joined 16 years ago
We talked about the state of reinforcement learning and what the field needs to succeed in building autonomous agents, the challenge of founding and building a company with a research-first agenda, which AI technical advances are over- and under-hyped, and much more.
Kanjun thinks language models are _still_ underrated!
Kanjun thinks language models are _still_ underrated!
1. Use some sort of instruction tuning to get the thing "good enough" that it gives decent results 75% of the time and the other 25% a human has to take over. 2. Use the actual usage data as training input. Punish bad behaviors and show the model what the human did to solve the problem. 3. Use this training loop to progressively have the model take over a larger % of the time.
…and I think if you can't get (1) good enough to be worth using it's going to be really hard to get the loop going.
First off, lots of other currencies are valuable without being reserve currencies. Swiss franc, Japanese yen, etc. Being a reserve currency probably boosts USD a bit but it's not the only pillar holding the thing up that people imply. If you disagree show your model: You have to believe that value for the euro, GBP, JPY, Swiss Franc is determined by thing X, USA does not have thing X and instead depends on being a reserve currency.
Second, what's the alternative reserve currency? Bitcoin? Don't make me laugh. RMB? Even more ridiculous. Euro? Probably the most realistic contender but seems to have major governance problems. As with democracy, the USD is the worst reserve currency, except for all the alternatives.
The government gave $18B to the SLS and so far has vapor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System
The government spent $211B on the shuttle program and got 133 launches. SpaceX will probably surpass that number this year at a fraction of the cost.
NASA's record on rockets since Apollo has been abysmal.
I don't think government is necessarily bad (the Russians did a much better job in recent decades!) but it leans into its failures and often has bad incentives. SpaceX fails fast, has great incentives, and has achieved an incredible amount on a (comparatively) shoestring budget.
I'm not 100% sure what the FRED chart you cited means by "Effective Loan Rate for Small Business Administration" but those are most likely collateralized.
- Noise means you can't do US domestic
They don't seem to be targeting this.
- Concorde didn't have the range for Pacific
They do seem to be attempting Pacific range.
- Costs didn't work for Atlantic routes
They are trying to bring down costs considerably.
- And airlines want lots of identical planes, not one special one for one route
This will certainly be a drawback, although if they could take e.g. 50% of premium transoceanic it won't be so specialized.