jpatt

The Growth aspect mentioned is that VCs are subsidizing the bill right now, so it is hard to know if at the current moment the demand curve would promote as much usage without it, but assuming demand remained constant (not even growing), you could expect token prices to be competed down. It is a commodity without a moat.

Now that we have pretty decent open source models, anyone can create a new business to supply more tokens. Sure there’s short term scarcity: energy, GPUs, cooling, but this is a scale up problem. More token demand = more data center build = more energy plant build. This downward pressure will also keep frontier private model prices in check.

Differentiation seems to be happening at the harness level, whereby we can expect token spend to be a metric to compete on and drive down for the customer (at least hoping tools in the application space don’t continue token based billing as their primary revenue stream).

These are not short term hyper growth forces, but a fundamental alignment of incentives.

You can still take the train from London to Amsterdam so you only have to feel half as bad.

I am just echoing the article:

  There will not be sufficient space to handle London-bound passengers at the station, given the more intensive post-Brexit formalities.

Not sure about the space intensity of pre- vs post-Brexit controls to fact-check the article.

The line itself isn't being serviced, it is the station. UK-bound lines take up excessive space due to Brexit-related security controls, so there isn't enough space for both the security and the construction areas.

They're still running the line from London to Amsterdam, which is why the line is still running and why the trains have to deadhead back.

I think you're reading a lot more into my comment than is there, tbh.

The comment I'm replying to said something to the effect of: "this may be a good thing because by democratizing highly paid professions, lower income workers will be lifted."

My comment said something to the effect of: "I disagree, I think capital owners will simply get more rich and the middle class will collapse further without raising anyone."

Of course our society doesn't give service workers a fair shake. My partner worked in a grocery store for a large chunk of our relationship. The schedule inconsistency, the sleep deprivation, the lack of healthcare, no vacation, no real sick leave, and on. Much of my family works in blue collar oil positions. There you're paid a bit better, but you throw away your body to make a dime. I know.

I'm just not convinced the default outcome of automating some knowledge workers is that magically somehow that makes everyone's lives better. I think legislative change of some kind would have to happen if that's the outcome we want.

I don't really think law, medicine, and software engineering are the main drivers of wage inequality, though. If the lowest wage was minimum wage and the highest wage was a programmer salary, the Americas would be a very equitable economy.

Automating America's remaining paths to the middle class will only serve to widen the gap between capital owners who will own infrastructure for automation and those shoved into a shrinking piece of the unautomated pie.

Sounds a lot more like a project or program manager than a product manager.

The person you were replying to is directly advocating for finding work elsewhere?

That's kind of their job, though, right? Couldn't you have the same complaint about doctors, pilots, or engineers who try to write? Writing isn't what they do.

Just seems like there will never be a Scotsman capable of appeasing this standard.

Eh, steel manning the role it kind of just sounds like a TPM. When roles are crisply defined, a good TPM has been a life changer for my job satisfaction. You basically get permission to farm out a lot of the most annoying parts of the job--status update forums, timeline management, and dependency wrangling--to another person who does it full time.

One of the most disappointing parts of moving away from .NET for work was the loss of NCrunch. That one tool made Red-Green-Refactor a breeze.

In Ruby/Java it is certainly a bit more of a chore to remember to do.