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Comment · 1 day ago
And who will be the Amazon and grow 2500x over the next 30 years?

Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen -- but if you take analogies from the dot-com era and assume they're going to play out in the same way, you can't just cherry-pick the bad ones.

Comment · 1 day ago
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Comment · 5 days ago
Here's a random anecdote for you:

Back in 2018, I sold a bunch of Nvidia stock. I had bought it in 2014, when deep learning was taking off, and it had gone up 10x since then. It was obvious that all the growth had been captured and it was time to get out. I remember feeling pretty smug about timing things just right.

Nvidia's market cap in 2018 was around $150B, and the largest company in the world was Apple at ~$800B. And part of my thinking at the time was, well... Nvidia is already worth about a fifth of the most valuable company in the world. How much can they reasonably grow from this valuation?

In hindsight, I can tell you: the answer is 35x (as of now, and who knows in the future). The idea that any company, much less Nvidia, would be worth $5T within a decade was laughable back then, and yet, here we are.

Comment · 7 days ago
You're basically agreeing with the person you replied to. Software went quickly because all of this tooling already existed. It will take a while to build equivalent tooling for other knowledge work, and once it does you'll start seeing larger benefits.
Comment · 8 days ago

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