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Actually, I think my fundamental challenge with AI is that it has no common sense. The way it builds things, writes, and operates is out of touch with reality.

Incidents like hugging face are partly rooted in the lack of common sense. It still functions like a supercharged toddler.

I'd love to overcome this because it'd mean I spend less time guiding the the LLM to produce usable outputs.

Much of this is foisted upon us by visual designers who wandered into product design. It's a category error the profession has never quite corrected. (maybe more controversially, it's caused by having anyone with the word "designer" in their title on a project that doesn't need such a person - this category is larger than anyone thinks)

CBS mischaracterized this memo, which says basically that there will be fewer of some jobs and more of other.

It's a pretty bland memo and a thinly veiled advertisement for AWS.

Sort of an entertaining read. The cornerstone of the argument starts on page 55 - three purported statistical anomalies that appear to be well-known and debunked.

* One person sees 1 of 4 images and another far away guesses the image. Supposedly it's accurate ~33% of the time instead of 25%. Fun but it can't be replicated by anyone else. Selection bias, poor design, and bad meta analysis explain the difference.

* ~54% of the, a person can detect if they're being stared at, whereas we'd expect 50%. Again, cannot be replicated in better designed studies and bad study design and selection bias explain the other results.

* By a small but supposedly statistically improbably amount, people can get a dice to roll by "wishing" for it. Again, cannot be replicated and can be explained with p-hacking anyhow.

You could still still see a greater left-side incidence if arm melanomas were higher on the left arm even though trunk/hip thigh melanomas were evenly distributed.

The blog fails to answer the most basic question: do right-side sleepers with a metal bedframe aligned with a radio tower have a higher incidence of left-side cancers that can explain the general population discrepancy?

Agreed. I'm an extremely fit runner doing 50+ miles a week and almost all of my runs are in a super easy zone that is equivalent to an uphill walk for most people. A lot of this has to due with well developed biomechanics, but also superior vo2max.

Most health focused runners should be walking at an incline or running downhill except for 1-2 high intensity interval days. There are huge benefits to low intensity activity and higher doses are almost always better. The sort of intense, grueling runs that most people do are likely counterproductive. It's like running a race every day as a workout. It's just not sustainable and unhealthy at high doses.

(Of course, if the goal is to be a runner and not simply be healthy, you'll need to push your body to a point where running is like walking but it takes a long time to do correctly.)

If we give substance X to 17 people and 100% of them die, I would recommend against taking substance X.

Of course, it's not as black and white here, but sample size and effect size should be considered in relation to each other. Previous research and theoretical expectations should also play a leading role.

Apologies for misrepresenting your source.

I think there are salary differences across careers for a variety of complex market reasons. If I had understood the degree to which money would dictate the security of my family, I'd have spent my years as a lowly paid graduate student and post-doc becoming a surgeon or working in finance instead of becoming a mathematician. My bay area salary is much better than my tenure track salary but still a fraction of what I could actually be making. Nurses, too, are free to retrain.

I will concede that this issue is not personally important to me.

Nursing only requires a 2 year degree in the US and hardly any ongoing training apart from paid training provided by the hospital. There might be some additional certifications for certain fields, but that's it.

Most nurses are paid hourly, so the "long hours" is a moot point.

My nurse friends all make around 100,000 per year after overtime, which they're eager to get. The average full time salary without overtime is ~80,000.

For a 2 year degree, this is very decent money in most states and I think we'd struggle to name a career with such low education requirements and high salary.

I really appreciate the work of medical professionals and don't want to belittle their work. But I think nursing does standout as a counterexample to the point you're making.

Neither of your links mention nursing.

I don't think the mortality rate needs to correspond to the incidence of long term effects.

I was saying that I think it's better to assume you're not dishonest, just intellectually lazy.

> "The effect of vaccination was not systematically assessed."

I think you're either paraphrasing deceptively, or you are being intellectually lazy. Perhaps it is better to not assume malice...

The rest of the quote is:

"In total, 144 participants received an mRNA vaccination between the baseline and the follow-up scan. We performed separate analyses for participants with vaccination as well as for participants without vaccination. The results were not different from the findings of the full cohort as presented. The cardiac effects of vaccination require further research."

This is a remarkably stupid comment but not everything is "unreasonably effective". Mathematics was noted as unreasonably effective for modeling the universe because most areas of mathematics were not invented for the applications they meet... like discovering that your coffee maker doubles as an exceptionally good waffle maker.

Makefiles on the other hand, are not unreasonably effective in this sense. Makefiles are, in fact, _reasonably_ effective... like a coffee maker that brews coffee well.

I came here to say the same exact thing! These courses are excellent.

As a follow-up to those courses, there are also some courses about the middle ages by Philip Daileader that pick-up the story at the decline of the Western empire.

(Also, I'm deriving great value from the Wondrium app).