jarvist
Joined 13 years ago
Joined 13 years ago
In a full on crash situation infants are not going to do well, so optimising for much more likely turbulence injuries (for which having the baby strapped as securely as possible is definitely a good idea!) seems more important.
What you need to know is the marginal carbon cost, which will be much less variable as almost all dispatchable generation is fossil.
So yes, you should avoiding adding load when there is a severe supply crunch and the marginal power is generated by gas peaker plants (often gas turbine based), and use power when renewable generation is otherwise being curtailed, but most of the time the grid is firmly in the middle regime with a fairly average marginal cost.
When I return the book to the library etc., I take all my record cards out and put them in a little perspex index box.
Sometimes I use the record cards to then start some more detailed notes in a notebook; sometimes the record cards refer to a page in my notebooks where I've attempted a derivation etc.
The NRICH material is really good: https://nrich.maths.org/teachers/early-years
There's some NRICH funded research that showed that exposure to symmetry and reasoning at this level was much more predictive of future abilities than numbers and counting. I think when parents try and help at the early stages, they often try to e.g. get their kids to count to 100, which is conceptually identical to counting to 10.
For number fluency there is the free White Rose '1 minute maths' app, which does a very nice job of gamifying subitising & etc. A lot of primary schools in London seem to have adopted the White Rose teaching resources. https://whiteroseeducation.com/1-minute-maths
There is also https://parallel.org.uk/ by Simon Singh, but this is aimed at ages ~10+.
The book by Rozhkovskaya has some really nice activities in it. https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1470416956
The book by Zvonkin described in the article is a very good motivator, particularly for the honest descriptions of lessons gone badly wrong, and staying up late cutting out pieces of cardboard! But it's quite difficult to use as a teaching resource.
(For those new to Pico-8, hit 'esc' from the Lua console to bring up the editor tools, then click on the icon in the top right.)
I saw him present 18 years ago, and asked him why: he said that he didn't want to rely on any predictions or models, but only discuss real data. Which is sort of defendable as a position, but ignored the fact that renewable energy was progressing so incredibly fast, and that these engineering predictions were not speculative but very much concrete.
Similarly the silicon solar panel industry in 2008 had a roadmap to get to £1/Wp over the next few years (which they did, and which led to the ~2012 explosion in solar installations), by mass producing the 'expensive' ~20% efficient (mono-crystalline silicon) technology. Mackay uses a 10% figure throughout.
So overall this was a bit like making predictions in the year 2000 assuming everyone will be stuck on 56k dial-up forever, because most people are on 56k dial-up.
These biases are present in all of the discussion of renewable technology, yet nuclear gets a free-ride / magical thinking in terms of uranium extraction, waste disposal and cleanup. And then there is the persistent obsession with land use in the book.
This led me to the conclusion (which I still hold) that this was an example of the tail wagging the dog: David MacKay wanted the 'obvious' physicists answer of nuclear power to be the natural conclusion, and by construction made it so in his book. Just because you are a Bayesian does not mean that you are unbiased!
David MacKay was an amazing scientist, but I do not think this book is accurate (even for its time), or that useful in public understanding of what we now call 'Net Zero'. It certainly popularised the idea of actually thinking through individual energy budgets, which can only be a good thing, but it was a massive missed opportunity to treat heat (chemical) energy (maximum entropy) and electrical (which can directly do work) as equivalent, just because they have the same unit.
Later on, as the 'Climate Tsar' he made a web app where you could play with the future balance of generation with a simulated model of the UK, and set your own costs for the different technologies, which I thought was much more useful. You could choose your own energy mix, and understand some of the tradeoffs.
And yes, very sad that he died so young. In the context of this book it would have been interesting to see how he dealt with the increasing mismatch of reality and his predictions as time passed.