ianm218

I’m excited to try this. I got Instinct after hearing all the hype and it is basically completely useless. Fails at the most basic browser navigation type tasks.

Right now the consumer agent players are trying to pretend they have decent functionality that will exist 3-6 months so they can get marketshare. So hopefully Anthropic is sticking to their underpromise and over deliver.

Lots of use cases are more speed than cost sensitive. I.e. yes if you are paying a bunch of engineers in Boston who graduated from MIT to work on robotics $165 is a rounding error if you aren’t producing at scale.

Basically anything aerospace and defense related will care more about speed and compliance than cost.

They have $80 billion in debt, they are basically going to be operating like a private equity run business. They'll be converting any cash flow they can to debt payments.

Housing prices in urban areas going down is not really the end of the world right? Seattle is incredibly expensive

it definitely feels like sooner than later there will be “Mythos level” cyber threats available on open source / uncensorable models. I think the only thing that can be done is continued work on hardening anything that is remotely close to “critical infrastructure” and software supply chain.

On one hand, self hosting will always be niche so you could pass a law like “if your serving inference at scale you need to have safeguards/ classifiers in place” since > 95% of inference will go through hosted services in the long run … but that could turn into thought policing dystopia real quick.

This feels like kinda of a useless comparison if we don't know about the tax rates they pay, cost of capital, adjusting for geographic location and local regulations etc. I.e. the largest increase was seen in NY where it is really expensive to do anything and high taxes.

I don’t think so - those companies are atleast modestly pro growth. They want to do more projects. In NYC and Boston local residents talk about “evil developers” who want to replace vacant lots with homes and businesses

Housing is largely restricted by local politics and zoning not corporate interests. There’s no conspiracy on that beyond crappy local politics.

I've been thinking for awhile it is very strange that claude/ openai etc google "What was the inflation rate last quater" instead of just having a tool to query BLS datasets and that sort of thing.

So hopefully most of these statistics move towards first party sources.

My guess is that the problem is internal politics and incentives. Yes I think it is a fully solved problem for a company worth trillions to have an infinitely scalable "pull requests" page.

For example, Microsoft is known to pay significantly less than their competitors. I am guessing they just don't have the systems internally to say "This problem is worth literally billions to us in revenue per year, so we will pay millions to IC's to get it fixed and clear internal roadblocks".

It's not "just" small tweaks it is likely that people who are entrenched need to be moved and they need people with the right incentives in place to get it done.

I think you are giving them way too much leeway. For the service they provide there’s no technical reason it can’t be infinitely scalable. For example their “pull request” page constantly goes down. Serving that kind of workload at high burst load is a fully solved problem.

If they are genuinely compute constrained on CI they should obviously reduce the free offerings rather than take down all their paying customers constantly.

Why do these benchmarks often show models running on Max i.e. Opus 5.5 (max) is on the frontier? I would think it is never really economical to run max

> I’ve now applied for over 3 dozen jobs and I’ve heard back from 24 of them with a rejection.

I wouldn’t encourage anyone who wants to do something else to stay, this just read as strange to leave to me. If he wants to find a job in tech surely he could reach to many of the people he’s worked with in the past or connected with at various events before throwing in the towel.