Recent submissions

Comment · 5 years ago
Correct.

I was asking what the basis is for your confidence that it positively isn't substantially genetic.

We know that intelligence is highly heritable, which leaves a few possible explanations, genetics being one of them (along with prenatal nutrition, prenatal lead exposure, etc).

If you're going to claim that genetics is only a small part of the reason that it's heritable, then that has its own burden of proof that needs to be met.

Comment · 5 years ago
Comment · 5 years ago

  "These standardized tests don’t add much."
Do you have any evidence for this aside from your immediate experience?
Comment · 5 years ago
But that's marked to market value.

The shareholder still has to receive a dividend or sell that higher priced stock, which are both taxable events.

So I still don't get it.

Comment · 5 years ago
I don't understand this.

If I'm a greedy shareholder, then I want dividends and cap gains, which are both taxable outside of company tax.

How does hoarding cash inside a company, which is out of my personal reach, help me to satisfy my greed? I can't buy a yacht with it until I get the money out.

Comment · 5 years ago
He worked as a research assistant for a professor for three years and is now engaged in amateur research which he shares on his blog, some of which has received positive feedback from some highly credible people.

Also, "researcher" doesn't imply "professional", since amateur researchers exist.

The self-appointed title of "Researcher" is appropriate, in my opinion. There are people in industry who receive that designation ("Real Estate Researcher") that are less deserving.

  "Academics criticise each other's work constantly but this is acceptable because the purpose is to improve one another's work, not to tarnish each other's reputation and drag their name through the mud."
But this is not an example of regular academic work that's being criticized.

This is a book that contains health advice being consumed and actioned upon right now by thousands or millions of laypeople. Guzey is therefore trying to warn regular people who might believe and follow bunk advice and suffer health consequences. He makes this intention clear.

James Randi's service to the public as a skeptic was proportional to the amount of noise he made when he would come across and debunk frauds like Uri Geller. (I'm not saying Walker is a fraud, but the public danger of bunk health wisdom is similar to that posed by conmen like Geller.)

I do still agree with you, however, that it would've been better to discuss the allegations with Walker in private before publishing them. Having read Walker's response now, though, I don't believe it would've made much of a difference. He's still misrepresenting official adequate sleep guidelines, willfully or otherwise, by saying that anyone who gets under 8 hours has "unmet sleep needs", contradicting the NSF.

  "kick up an internet storm with accusations of "deliberate data manipulation""
You're right - the accusation of "deliberate" is definitely a big mistake, and he should remove that since it assumes intent when that hasn't been established.

On the whole, though, aside from sparse mistakes like this (along with the mistake that you noticed of not making it clear that the Berkeley communication was unverified), I feel that the article is rather constrained.

Gelman also noticed this measured tone and explicitly complimented the author on it.

Comment · 5 years ago
Comment · 5 years ago
Respectfully, I think this misses the point a bit.

Roser himself says that there could very well be valid criticisms that Hickel is correct on and he is incorrect on. The criticism that Hickel recently raised and that you mention here (regarding the validity of pre-1981 data) sounds like it could be one of these.

But productive dialogue between them was largely precluded by perceptions of bad faith and aggressive language ("mansplaining", etc) going back to before Allen's paper.

Now, regarding the specific criticism about pre-1981 data, I found this[1] and this[2] which seems to claim that the older data is adjusted for non-market income. Although, I haven't digged into it properly, so I can't comment on who is correct here.

  "we want to emphasize is that those estimates of poverty do take into account non-market transactions such as subsistence farming.
[1]
https://ourworldindata.org/poverty-home-production-and-consu...

  "Yes, over the last two hundred years, there has been a major shift from people farming for their own consumption towards people working for a wage and purchasing goods in the market. But historians know about history and where non-market sources of income make up a substantial part of total income, it is very obvious that money would represent a rather silly indicator of welfare.

  Just as we need to adjust for price inflation, accounting for non-market sources of income is an essential part of making meaningful welfare comparisons over time. Estimates of poverty and prosperity account for both market and non-market sources of income, including the value of food grown for own consumption or other goods and services that enriched the lives of households without being sold in a market."
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-history-methods
Comment · 5 years ago
On the other hand, corporate taxes advantage large multi-national corporations over smaller companies because they have the resources and capability to manoeuvre around the rules and pay a lower relative tax rate.

A government should be able to achieve control through Pigovian taxation, regulations and fines. I'm not convinced that a blanket corporate tax (which does indeed facilitate targeted tax breaks) is necessary beyond the other tools that already exist.

Comment · 5 years ago
What would be the incentive for this?

The whole point is for stakeholders to eventually get paid in a taxable event; either shareholders through a capital gains taxable event or employees through an income taxable event.

Some tech companies are hoarding cash but I don't believe this is due to incentives created by taxation, although I could be mistaken.

Comment · 5 years ago
The tone of these particular tweets should be parsed in context.

If you think that someone has been operating in bad faith towards you for years, eventually you lose interest in engaging and choose the "block" option, which is what Roser did today.

Also, Hickel himself has engaged in uncivil rhetoric previously, e.g an unprovoked accusation of "mansplaining" in 2019.

Comment · 5 years ago
Hickel did a similar thing to Steven Pinker.

He wrote a scathing article falsely claiming that the poverty rate was increasing (contra to Pinker's claim), when according to his own data in that same article - it was actually steadily decreasing.

I've come to see him as a bad faith actor.

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