hankthecat
Joined 6 years ago
Joined 6 years ago
you need to adjust for inflation if you're going to use a valuation that is 14 years old.
fyi the "all weather" portfolio's name is stupid given it's mostly backward looking and benefited from a commodities supercycle and rates dropping from QE. With the 10yr at 1% putting 30-40% of your portfolio in long dated treasuries is insane. Let's use the TLT etf as an example (20 yr treasury). It has a duration of 19 years. That means for every 1% increase increase in rates, the value of your bonds will go down 19%....yikes. Let's say you are going to buy individual bonds and hold to maturity. Ok, you are protected from that price drop assuming you don't sell, but you've also just made a 20 year bet you don't think interest rates will go higher from here.