gregpilling

I have 4 children and I actively help them with/cheat on their homework. They are assigned too damn much of it. They are all getting good grades and I don't think it is impacting them academically.

I am surprised that there is no automated alert to tell the webmaster that his code has changed on his website. Especially on the payments page!

With 50,000,000 users a month, surely they have a whole team working on checkout, all the time?

"It’s a response to scarce capital, and when that constraint is loosened, it’s worth considering whether other approaches are superior. With enough cash in the bank, Katzenberg can afford to create content, sign distribution deals, and see if consumers watch."

There are two main thoughts from this that occurred to me: 1. There are very few Katzenbergs out there, so him personally raising that money is not surprising. If Spielberg or Lucas wanted to create a short form video company I am certain that they would be able to raise similar amounts. I am not him; therefore the lean rules still apply to me

2. the times that I have had enough money to buy my way out of problems has not yielded the best results. In my 30 years of doing this the clever answers have always come when my resources have been restricted, with often the best results from the most constriction. Extra money can bring bad results sometimes, the beauty is in the restraints.

TL;DR You are not Katzenberg. Neither am I.

I do light manufacturing in Arizona. In the last six months the prices of steel have basically doubled. My #1 material input now costs twice as much, and to add insult to injury, it is now becoming very hard to get in some cases.

Last week we were scrambling to find 1/4 steel plate. A common common material. Its as rare as finding bread in a supermarket, its one of those staples that you never expect to see shortages of. And last week we had a lot of trouble getting it.

I had dinner with tubing salesperson this week. He was complaining that all the fancy DOM and high strength thin wall was in short supply - and this is where most of his commission based pay comes from. We don't use that much DOM, but we have noticed the price doubled this year.

Another friend sells a machine which uses hydraulic parts. He can get all the hose he wants, but nobody has any fittings. His suppliers of hydraulic cylinders are all out of stock and not expecting shipments until November. One supplier told him that he laid off his whole staff since there was nothing to sell and he wasn't sure if he could cover rent let alone employees until November.

The tariffs have caused a two-fold reaction; industrial customers with money in the bank have purchased 6 months or a year worth of stuff instead of a months worth of stuff, while suppliers offshore have stopped shipping because they don't know what the price will be by the time it arrives in port. Since the deal is struck before the ship leaves, what happens if a 25% tariff is added? So they ship nothing and wait.

The actual tariff itself is not the main issue, it is the market forces reaction to it. No USA based suppliers can pick up the slack, and nobody I knew of was hedged against a sudden tariff being applied to their main inputs.

Blue collar workers will get laid off and the effects will ripple through the economy. This crash will be different from the last, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.

I have no strategy other than avoiding new spending on machines and being very slow to add new hires. Your industry segment may vary tremendously, time will tell.

I am moving to a new factory this month, my electrician is harvesting all the conduit and panels, because they have gone up 130% this year he tells me. I am in fear of the invoice.

Same for Home Equity lines of credit. I had a friend who was a banker, he had planned on using a $100K HELOC to remodel his house. He was stunned when Chase dropped his Line from $100K to $5K. Killed that remodel.

When I heard that, I maxed out my line of credit and stuck the money in a different bank. That choice got me through 2009. Glad I did it.

My son had brain surgery when he was 6. He is now 14. The helicopter ride of 100 miles to the brain center was $25,000 and the brain surgery was $46,000. The helicopter ride took 1 hour and used 2 people. The brain surgery was 6 hours and involved at least 3 surgeons, plus unknown number of support staff. Insurance was willing to cover the surgery, but we had to fight for 6 months for the helicopter ride.

To quote the lead surgeon during the 6 month follow up - "I stopped looking at what we billed, and what I got paid years ago. It never made any sense to me, so I focused on the patient outcome, which did make sense to me". Great human, saved my kids life, was totally supportive afterwards and stayed in touch for a few years.

Medical practices in the USA makes no sense to me. I am Canadian.

Relevant to Simone, I have a friend who had the same problem and actually went to the same surgeon for the problem, but 5 years earlier. My son was recovered in a few days, she spent 6 months in the hospital to recover. The change was a new technique. They fixed my son through his leg, my friend had her skull removed and replaced.

Humanity can do awesome things sometimes. Sometimes great, sometimes horrid.

You can come intern at my factory in Arizona, no charge :)

I will teach you about laser cutting, robot welding, keeping the supply chain going, and how to make a profit when competing directly with China and India.