goldenbrillianc

I agree with you 100% and I think this conflict is at the root of why I feel so offput by AI thought leaders' idea of safety, and the rationalist/EA mindset more generally. There seems to be a tendency among the rich to focus on the most extreme global-scale outcomes while ignoring the more likely mundane outcomes that will make things worse for the majority of people while leaving themselves relatively unaffected.

Honestly, I was always one of the skeptics who thought AI was a probably-not-in-our-lifetimes moonshot (imagining that it couldn't be done on existing computer architectures) and that stuff like this article was just a bunch of puffery from people who read too much sci-fi.

But in the end, a lot of it was proven right, even if it wasn't quite in the way we imagined.. A lot of pre-LLM interpretations of AI imagine it as some sudden 0 to 100 breakthrough, like one day someone writes an AGI program in their basement and takes over the world with it. There's shades of that in here too, talking about worries of organizations secretly developing AI capabilities and needing to track public data for patterns to discover it. In the end there was a 'magic program' in the transformer, but it doesn't seem like they really foresaw how the program would be useless on its own, and the 'AI' would come from ingesting as much data as possible, a process that has built incrementally over years and been very much exposed to the public.

It's interesting to see how most of the discussion on the 'program that can write programs' was approaching it from a very traditional-AI point of view - how do we define the problem space, how do we make programming languages more amenable to it, etc. basically just envisioning a more sophisticated version of a traditional code generator. Nobody really foresaw that we would have a general intelligence that can write programs effortlessly by just dumping the entire internet into a simple algorithm.

Where do you think 'AI tells' came from? :-)

My interpretation is that before the transformer, most everything under the domain of 'AI' was either an academic curiosity or only applicable in very narrow fields. GPT-3 was when the 'magic' that people had always dreamed of with AI began to emerge, and it's only really this year that we are starting to be seriously confronted with the possibility of a general intelligence emerging from LLMs (albeit, not quite the same thing as 'true' AI which would necessarily be more of a biological exercise).

hi, can I get a line of contact for you? been stalking your post history for a while and curious to talk