frgtpsswrdlame

Joined 10 years ago

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5,881
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2,067
Member since
Oct 20
'rhizome 'kafkaesq 'vkou 'specialist

econ and investing

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Recent submissions

Comment · 1 year ago
>I think we should revisit the policy of an actual forced savings account - rather than the bad proxies for it: social security, home equity, 401k.

I think social security is a far better setup than forced savings account. The fact that it's much harder to raid, that it's not really 'your money' locked up somewhere is a big reason why it has lasted as long as it has.

Comment · 1 year ago
So this guy had a few twitter exchanges with Luigi and he thinks the US healthcare system isn't that bad? Doesn't really seem like an article for HN. But as long as we're here I think, sort of like Luigi, I'll let other people argue about whether the US healthcare system functions well or efficiently. But as for this:

>While it’s true that UnitedHealthcare has the highest denial rate for medical claims, the CEO doesn’t set the approval rate of a health insurance company’s payouts — that’s done by the actuaries, who themselves are constrained by various considerations, such as the need to keep costs low, including for policyholders.

By this logic, what can Brian Thompson be said to be responsible for? It's very strange to me to assign more responsibility for a companies denial rates to its actuaries than the actuaries' bosses bosses boss. So why exactly does UHC have higher denial rates than other companies? It just happens to be that it's actuaries are more frugal? This explanation doesn't hold water and I think it's a strange response to the shooting of a CEO to say, well actually CEOs aren't responsible for the things their corporations do. Of course they are, now they aren't solely responsible, but they probably have more responsibility than any other single individual. It can be completely true that killing Brian Thompson was wrong AND that he was no saint, being responsible for (and getting rich off of) large amounts of human misery inflicted on UHC policy holders by the organization he headed.

Comment · 1 year ago
Regarding this part:

Clarification of specialty role

  - Less strict on the direct link between degree/job responsibilities

  - Recognizes that AI may require multiple academic background
You really won't need to clarify whether the role is a specialty one or not if you just increase the minimum wage for H1Bs. I really don't know why we don't have some rule that pins H1B wages to like the 90th percentile wage.
Comment · 1 year ago
10 people died from the Boars Head contaminated meat. I guess I don't really mind if a few lawyers chase those ambulances and extract a lot of money out of that company?
Comment · 1 year ago
I thought the issue was deregulation? Something like Trump rolled back some rules about oversight and then Biden never put them back into place? Does the USDA even have the power to fix this?

Anyways, having a pregnant wife right now, it's worrying that listeria is on the rise. We're already avoiding stuff like deli meat but when there's listeria in the frozen waffles, mushrooms, and vegetables you have to wonder what's really going on.

Comment · 1 year ago
If you're the only one that can come close. Kaggle competition prizes are about focusing smart people on the same problem. But it's very rare for one team to blow all the others out of the water. So if you wanted to make a business out of the problem kaggle will (probably) show the best you could do and still have no moat.
Comment · 1 year ago
>characteristic of these use cases is that there is no one right answer

I think what you mean is that they work best in cases where it's very hard to measure how well they are working.

Comment · 1 year ago
Yeah but what made Twitter twitter wasn't really the usercount, it was the mix of established voices and complete randos mixing. If the journalists and economists and politicians go to Bluesky, it will win. I definitely don't think that's a given but it seems much more plausible now than it did a few months ago.
Comment · 2 years ago
I mean what if it is a toss up? Were we talking about a literal, actual coin flipping, calling it as 50-50 is a better insight than calling it as either heads or tails.
Comment · 2 years ago
I like the dashboarding more than the analysis lol. I think FL is just a red state now and positing it as anything else smells a little fishy to me. Also, I think there's a thing now where all sorts of analysts know they can get a name out of making one big correct prediction that everyone else got wrong. That's lead to a lot of predictions being made with the intention of being contrarian.
Comment · 2 years ago
Judging by my twitter feed, some scientists are starting to push back on the use of UMAP (and t-SNE.)
Comment · 2 years ago
I still don't get the impetus or desire to make NNs work better for tabular data. Regression works pretty well and is easy to interpret/diagnose/work with. GBMs work really well (given a few considerations) and is trickier to work with but nothing crazy. When I see all the fancy hijinks people get up to when applying NNs to audio/text/pictures I think it's really cool but also not something I'd want to have to do if I didn't absolutely need to when working with data out of a relational db. And anyways, how much of a benefit could it actually bring? GBMs are already capable of fitting and dramatically overfitting most datasets.
Comment · 3 years ago
Comment · 3 years ago
I actually think Nate is wrong on this, especially on how he states the wrong-ness of the two parts of the story. It seems very likely to me that initial death counts were overstated. But the probability that it was an Israeli bomb that went off in the parking lot carries a lot more uncertainty and I think there's still a decent chance that it's true. There's still a lot of investigation to be done but, if when all is said and done, it turns out the bomb likely was from Israel, will Nate stick to his own standards of retraction?
Comment · 3 years ago
Ah, I saw a great tweet that captured a lot of my feelings about this the other day: https://twitter.com/InsightsMachine/status/17018601232984842...

>“Data is the new oil.” Clive Humby, 2006

>“Most of my career to date seems to involve redesigning legacy reports to make it easier for existing users (if any) to see that they contain absolutely no actionable insight with a lot less effort.” Jeff Weir, 2023

For my perspective:

In general, I find most users can't actually say whether they need any given number/visual on an ongoing basis. So large amounts of work go into building dashboards that are used for a very short amount of time and then discarded. Probably we should do a better job on one-off analyses and only dashboard after the fact.

Many users don't actually want a dashboard, what they actually want is a live data dump into excel where they can pivot table it. Maybe, maybe a bar or line chart.

In general, I find people always ask for more filters, more slicers, just endless options to reconfigure the data as they please. But they quickly become trapped in a swamp of their own making, now nobody knows how this should be sorted or sliced, does it even make sense to do it this way? People think what they want is a 'data democracy' with hundreds of dashboards with hundreds of options with hundreds of users and so they ask for and usually receive it. But they usually just end up coming back to the data team and asking - 'so what's the answer?' What many orgs need is actually a data dictator.

On the other hand, dashboards do allow you to establish really good feedback loops within the business so when you can identify an ongoing constraint, figure out how to track it and then force people to receive it on a regular cadence and be accountable to it, you can make a lot of headway. But that's a more niche use-case than how they're frequently used and the skills involved are different - less visualization skills, more business analysis - and you need to be positioned to make sure someone is held accountable.

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