etempleton

God forbid kids have a fun holiday to get candy and dress up.

Shorting is always riskier because you have to time the trade. But I have moved exclusively to bonds.

No doubt, but a lot of investors believed the delusional weirdos and so have invested as if every human would be replaced by a sentient AI.

Yes, but it appears that the banks are not over levered like they were during the housing crisis. They will take a hit, but presumably will not need bailing out.

It was part of the bubble. Amazon's stock lost over 90% of it's value. The company survived, but many other companies did not. A bubble does not mean a company fails just that valuations are too high and that there will be a massive correction over a short period of time. Some companies fail, others survive.

Please do some research on the other costs involved in AI. Not a single AI company is making any profit and realistically are not close. Training models costs billions of dollars. There is no moat for these companies. If an open model comes out tomorrow that is better than Claude what happens to Claude's 1.5 trillion dollar valuation? What happens if revenue does not grow as fast as anticipated when Anthropic alone has 750 billion dollars in obligations? How do they pay their bills? What happens then.

The only company making money are hardware manufacturers who are throwing logs on to keep the fire burning through direct capital investments in their customers. Without Nvidia some of these neoclouds would already have failed.

It is preemptive. Everyone can see the bubble and these companies are barrelling forwarding anyway. It is reckless and irresponsible.

Fortunately, they do not owe the banks as much as they owe each other and private capital.

That is my point. A lot of the early dot com companies didn't survive. Just because AI has value does not mean there has not been over investment or investment in the wrong places.

There was a lot of value in the internet too but it didn’t prevent a crash.

Nvidia is willing to prop it up, I have no doubt about that, but that doesn’t matter if the market loses faith in the AI narrative. Core weave is a public company, investors can abandon the stock and have already started to do so. Anthropic and Open AI will probably also soon be public. If the market loses faith. It doesn’t matter. And Nvidia may eventually have to decide how much money they are willing to lose on Coreweave.

I know she fired and/or discredited a few people including an intern who's father was on the board of directors. Otherwise the compartmentalization did not allow everyone to see the full extent of the lie. Others were just too incentivized to go along with it.

Always good to pass on any opportunity you don’t fully understand. You may miss some opportunities, but you will also miss being taken as a fool.

VCs are typically kinda gullible because they are primed to believe and sometimes do not have the technical background to really do proper due diligences.

From what I know, extreme compartmentalization of information, to the extent it seriously harmed whatever chances there might have been to pivot to some kind of realistic product.

And then an extremely tight circle of people she knew she could manipulate. Liars hate people that see through their lies and get rid of them as soon as possible or otherwise try to ruin them.