ericd
Joined 17 years ago
Joined 17 years ago
And I think a big part of why you shouldn't listen to him is that he's said repeatedly that he doesn't really use generative AI outside of occasional experiments - he hasn't seen its potential enough to bother using it himself beyond some initial tests. Which is fine, but I think it also means that he likely doesn't have a good intuition of the likely future demand, which is pretty key in figuring out whether debt loads are likely to be sustainable or not. Investing is fundamentally about trying to predict the future and putting your money into the things that will likely be successful there. And he's demonstrably been terrible at predicting the future of this stuff.
His track record of prediction on this topic is stunningly bad, and he's made a job out of being counter to the AI hype, so he seems likely unable to honestly update his beliefs to adapt to changing evidence without jeopardizing the attention people pay to him.
I highly recommend Eric Ries' new book Incorruptible if you want to learn more about this stuff. In there he tells the story of the Vectura Group, a pharma company that was developing treatments for asthma and other respiratory diseases. It was looking at a sale, and it had a couple offers, the one from Phillip Morris slightly edged out the other, and because of fiduciary duty, even though many involved viscerally hated the idea of going to Phillip Morris, as the cause of many of the ailments they sought to cure, they sold to them.