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I have read it.

- He isn't a stock trader, he is a bond trader. The kind of bets you need to make to be succesful are different.

- "how lucky he got by chance" - He doesn't say this. He talks about how we can even better model uncertainties.

Yep, you also wouldn't give the same computer/software advice to your grandma as you would a peer at work. Buffet is telling us to leave trading to the pros, but he absolutely trades.

Are there 100 people who know finance and think carefully like Nassim taleb? What do their outcomes look like? I would bet all of them do pretty well. (I'm not even a big Taleb fan.)

This is just like the startup founder argument. Every one which succeeds ends up having a tremendously interesting background demonstrating unique interest and capability.

Every scientific endeavor is about predicting the future. Imagine your 3 closest friends wanted you to invest in your business. Could you predict which of them would likely do better than the others?

I completely agree. This is true of most fields, which is why you can pay a professional for their special skills.

Nassim Taleb made his money trading markets.

Why do you feel so convinced they can't?

Buffett says this kind of stuff publicly. But his own fund moves in and out of investments all the time.

Do you have any information about how much material going to landfills? What if 1 car is 1000 phones?

That doesn't drive people to pay 3x. What does it is the fear that prices will never come down or that this is a normal.

The price system is how our society allocates resources. The fact that people are allocating their own resources to buy one -- without any perverse incentives or being compelled, indicates it's not wasteful to them.

A better example of waste is when local governments funds things which people don't use.

I think the root of this sentiment is misunderstanding or lack of satisfaction at the system level.

> And so we get this waste.

Wait. If they are making phones that get bought up every year because of people like your friend, then where is the waste?

These things are always cyclical, but FOMO is a tough emotion to combat.

And if you read what I said, before your comment, you'll see its about this particular situation.

> this is also done in the court room.

And we have we gone through that process to look at the issue from all sides and hear arguments from all parties? No.

You don't need to know intent to fire or punish someone anyway. In this case we can dismiss people for improper action, without demeaning them personally.