dweez

Joined 7 years ago

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136

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Member since

Nov 21

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Comment · 3 months ago

I spent a lot of time researching LLM routing last year and also came to the conclusion that it's generally not worth the effort. It's too hard to understand the difficulty of a query a priori.

One specific challenge I was seeing is that difficulty depends a lot on what information is retrievable by the agent. Consider the question "what is the 5-state busy beaver number?" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver). In 2023 this would be a Mythos-tier research problem, but a solution was proved in 2024 so today any minimally intelligent model with a web search tool can just fetch the answer. You don't know which queries will be basic summarization and which will be deep reasoning until you get going.

Comment · 5 months ago

Good moment to revisit this fun article: https://jasonfantl.com/posts/Universal-Unique-IDs/

If the entire universe were turned into a giant computer and did nothing but generate uuids until its heat death, how many bits would you need for the ID space?

Comment · 6 months ago

If you follow Apple's official address to a lawyer's office in Delaware, don't be surprised that Tim Cook isn't there to greet you.

Comment · 7 months ago

The modern world is like Jean Baudrillard's vision of hell. Back in 1991 he wrote "The Gulf War did not take place", commenting on what was at the time a new development of 24/7 live media coverage of the war. Media saturation created a hyperreality where images about the war replaced the thing itself. How far we have come. We are so complacent here that war exists only as stream of symbols and sounds streaming out of our screen. I think many do not truly believe it is real.

Comment · 7 months ago

If it's any consolation , VTI is free-float weighted so won't pick up very much SpaceX initially.

Comment · 7 months ago

This is a slightly tongue-in-cheek way of saying that if you believe a security is severely mispriced then there is a straightforward way to express that opinion.

Comment · 7 months ago

So sounds like this will be a great short candidate after the index re-weighting.

Comment · 9 months ago

One way to think about this is you have a binomial distribution with p=0.8 and n=number of lying friends. Each time you increase n, you shift the probability mass of the distribution "to the right" but if n is even some of that mass has to land on the "tie" condition.

I wrote a quick colab to help visualize this, adds a little intuition for what's happening: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1EytLeBfAoOAanVNFnWQ...

Comment · 9 months ago

There are a few markets like Jacksonville and Atlanta where there is a lot of institutional ownership, but outside of those few cases impact of Blackrock et al on housing markets is effectively nil.

Comment · 11 months ago

The Agricultural Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

Comment · 1 year ago

To summarize the article: buying the Yes side of this market is like shorting treasuries. It's not a bet that treasuries will default, but rather a macro bet about that demand for cash (i.e. interest rates) will increase.

Comment · 1 year ago

Great point. Never forget about counterparty risk!

Comment · 1 year ago

Matt Levine has a bit about the best customer service your broker can provide is not picking up the phone in a crisis.

Bad UX is, intentionally or not, consistent with Vanguard's long-term index investing philosophy. Call us? Use our website? Whatever it is you are trying to do, you probably shouldn't be doing that.

I kid, but only a little.

Comment · 1 year ago

Can't get insurance -> can't get a mortgage -> can't buy a house

Comment · 3 years ago

That had been GitHub's model for their SF HQ office, more or less. Some local people used it as their daily office, but there seemed to always be a mini-summit or get together of remote folks happening each week.