dw_arthur

I love when those in power so clearly say fuck you because it wakes up a lot more people. Next up is Anthropic stopping you from building software that is similar to existing software owned by any company that can afford the services of an AmLaw 100 law firm.

If you don't have a filtering mechanism moderators will burn out and more interesting projects may never be seen. If you've run a bunch of LLM agent sessions concurrently you run into the human review bottleneck problem. That's all this is on a larger scale.

I'm watching Photocraft because if 1000 people on the Internet working together can vibe code a viable Photoshop clone we will truly be in a new era.

I am thinking a little further into the future where companies and people themselves become more dependent on AI. If LLMs disappeared today how many companies and people could not function? Probably not many. But, in 5 years how many companies will be dependent on AI? A future where companies are dependent on big AI labs to run their business could happen. I think the business term is forwards integration, where a seller moves into one of their buyer's markets.

Also, in such a future businesses would be reorganized to use AI. That probably means less employees and reduced human complexity. The business processes are further abstracted from people making it easier for a big AI lab to move in.

If I was looking at businesses today where the big AI labs could step in I would look for businesses where they earn high margins based on intellectually complex tasks. Maybe the most pure example would be trading in the stock market since it can be completely done by a computer. Then you have areas like law which process large amounts of data but are also heavily based on relationships.

Sorry folks, gatekeeping is coming back. In a world where AI can produce infinite software and infinite "content" there have to be stricter rules to participate in a community.

I think it's just a logical conclusion if everyone keeps feeding OpenAI and Anthropic data. I don't think it's imminent, but if AI keeps improving and regulation is very lax I could see this world developing in 5-10 years.

Say OpenAI builds GPT-11 and they realize it can do 95% of their clients work. Why not hire away key people from the client or the client's competitors and start eating into their market share? OpenAI would realize if GPT-11 has this ability then Anthropic is probably able to do the same thing. The company that has the most money and credit available is going to be able to buy more compute. OpenAI and Anthropic cannot slow down unless mandated to by the government.

The rapid advancement of LLMs is screaming that if you want to do something valuable in the future for its own sake don't do it on a computer. Anything a single person can create on the computer can now be cloned in a couple of days at most.

Get some offline hobbies. Take up an instrument, find a dancing partner, do anything that cannot be replicated by an LLM.

I always thought the gambling ads were a bit dystopian when watching British sporting events. At the time, I had no thought of the same thing coming to America.

I am a huge DeepSeek fan, but it cannot come close to Opus 5.5 on UI design. A $20 Claude subscription that I use some months and cancel the others along with Deepseek API is great.

This was a huge problem before AI due to Amazon and global internet marketplaces. Why spend R&D dollars developing an amazing product when Chinese knockoffs will show up 6 months later? I wonder how many great consumer products don't exist because there's no way to recoup your R&D costs and develop a healthy market.

Imagine if there were no intellectual protections for pharmaceuticals. The government would have to take over R&D.

Older people grew up socializing constantly so they can just start talking to strangers like they've known each other for years, especially if they are from the same town.

This reminds me I need to get to work storing a weeks worth of water in my basement and stashing a little bit of cash in the house.

I bet a lot of people are paying attention to the vibecoded Abode suite. If it's successful that will be a huge signal.

We are taking away the ability for some very smart people to be engaged with the world in a way that is challenging and meaningful to them while building tools that allow one person to do the work of 10. Fill in the blanks if you want, but this is not good. We must quickly find out how to give people hope for the future.

I'm guessing diminishing gains are setting in on training frontier models and the capital isn't there to chase them. Even if OpenAI/Anthropic and Chinese companies said they would slow research nothing can stop the NSA and Chinese intelligence services from continuing on in the dark.