doctorless
Joined 9 years ago
Joined 9 years ago
> Funny enough, in the middle of that question, my internet died and interrupted the call for the first time in the six months I lived in that house. Odd. It came back ten minutes later, and I dialed back into the conference line, but the mood of the call pretty much 180’d.
I find that when strange things happen like this, they’re hardly coincidence. Did you run a traceroute after the disconnect anywhere? Did you see an IP address change? If so, was it a significant change in the CIDR block it was within?
1. Geographic locales have linguistic norms that silently help in-group association. Adjusting rhetoric to these terms make people more pliable.
2. Context-aware sentiment is more impactful than general sentiment analysis. Someone may not have been a Trump supporter, but they didn’t like Hillary. This became another fulcrum.
3. Social leaders had the biggest impact, but social leaders can be made. This was leveraging a thought experiment conducted by DARPA, published in a paper titled, “Containment Control for a Social Network with State-Dependent Connectivity“ (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.5644.pdf)
These and a few other factors lead to my prediction of polling trajectories delivering a win for Trump in 2016 (the lecture was in August).
While my excessively paranoid self is inclined to agree, I am curious as to the author’s reasoning here.
If that were true, every startup would be successful.