dia80

Anthropic's S-1 (IPO doc) says they will spend >$0.5T. Where is that money going to come from? The gap between the frontier and the open models isn't large enough to generate anything like that in operating profits. Debt markets are getting tapped out with AI debt. We are about to find out how much stomach equity investors have remaining. The fact that they might have trouble servicing their current and expected future debt comes as no surprise.

Why test Fable high effort vs Sol medium? Especially when Sol comes out 4-5x cheaper in their tests at those effort levels.

Tailscale on your PC and phone. Free (as in beer). I run vikunja.io in docker at home and simply web browse to it over the tailnet.

If you are using the dollar right now, what pain are you taking? None. What's actually happened? US added some tariffs and became a bit more isolationist and the Fed has lost some independence. Might not bode well for the future but has very little impact on today.

Even if the dollar was "dead" the time and effort required by the world economy to switch away from the dollar system would be enormous so not much is likely to happen quicker than a few decades.

This warrant's a little caution, there may well be some negative selection bias here. The banks most likely to go bust are the ones most desperate for cash so they offer the highest interest rates... If it's FDIC insured you are good up to $250k but I don't know exactly how much inconvenience is associated with your bank going bust and potentially collecting FDIC insurance.

UK rules differ from the US there is a 3-point test for insider trading:

1. The information has to be specific - Yes - you should sell Boeing

2. Would a reasonable investor take this information into account when making a decision to trade - Yes - this seems quite clear

3. The information must be non public - IIRC disclosure to a large group of people - in this case the perhaps 200ish people on the plane knowing it had a problem would probably count as the information being public and thus this test is not met and you are free to trade - I think the bar is around 30 people

I knew all those hours spent in compliance training would come in handy one day!

Not really going to help you make money...

Forecast! Time to reach for your linear regression, GBDT or NN.

What's that little box for? A foot warmer?

Great video, thoughtful and persuasive. Highly recommended to broaden your perspective, it did for me.

As I understand it SVB is insolvent primarily due to incompetence, the actual actions they have taken: take deposits and buying US treasury bonds are every day activities for a bank. There are no exotic derivatives or off balance sheet special purpose vehicles. It's hard to regulate that away.

Not so, Kherson was annexed and is now back in Ukrainian hands. You can conclude from this that RU accepts their annexations are BS.

True Story: I visited No. 11 Downing Street as a school boy in 1998 when Gordon Brown, our local MP, was chancellor. He took us next door to no. 12 where Nick Brown was chief whip, he started pointing out things in his office and as he was doing so a side door opened and a man stepped in. He pointed at the man and said "And that's a civil servant". The man reversed course, closed the door, opened it again and stuck his head around and said "Yes, minister". My classmates didn't get the joke, I did but was too stunned to laugh as Nick Brown and Gordon Brown had fallen about laughing and I was just thinking "aren't you meant to be running the country and not making TV jokes?" To be fair it was pretty funny :)