davewritescode

I think it 100% depends on what markets you’re looking at.

If you’re betting/trading on sports (80% prediction market activity by volume, you are 100% up against Susquehanna. Doubly so if you’re predicting combos because there is not nearly enough liquidity.

There are multiple parties involved when you place a trade on a prediction market and all of them get paid.

I’m not stating that there’s no market a relatively unsophisticated investor can take advantage of just pushing back on the idea that PMs are PvP

It’s possible this is the future of the industry.

The big money maker in prediction markets is combos or parlays in traditional sports betting. The market for these types of bets is tiny so you need Wall Street firms like Susquehanna to come in and provide liquidity which is what they do for Kalshi.

What this means in practice is you don’t place a bet with fixed odds, it’s more like placing a market order on a stock.

If a Sportsbook could effectively give custom odds on each bet for each player based on the market it would essentially be what prediction markets do today.

Making gambling illegal doesn’t make it just go away. My Grandfather used to bet on sports in 40s and 50s with a local bookie. The bookies even ran sweepstakes which resembled the modern day lotto which my great grandmother played every week.

People like to gamble we need it legalized with reasonable regulations.

What my big problem is that Wall St and the wider market seems to be trending to the least ethical companies (Kalshi, Polymarket, Bettr) are running unregulated gambling operations, providing 0 tax money to offset societal costs and are denying what they’re offering is gambling at all and even promising you can make money off it.

I have worked in gaming before so feel free to disregard my opinion but I truly do enjoy occasional betting and while its hard to argue it’s a net positive in my life it has never caused any financial hardship.

Betting $25 on a game hijacks something in my brain that treats it like a fun problem to solve. It gets me interested in teams that I’d otherwise have no interest in. I’ve been betting on sports since the days of offshore betting sites and I can’t say I’ve ever lost or gained more than a few hundred dollars a year.

I’m an adult and I enjoy being able to gamble on sports. It’s never been a problem for me and I suspect it never will be because of the way I do treat it, strictly something to be done for fun.

I grew up in a household where family members also went to casinos and bet on sports responsibly so it was drilled into my head that you can’t ever beat the house and you should never bet what you couldn’t afford to lose.

What business do you have telling me what I’m allowed to do with my own money for fun?

Some of what you’re saying is likely true but quality is something that will never be optional. There is quantitative data suggest that LLMs perform better on higher quality code base which makes sense. Code that is well organized and coherent will make better use of the context window.

Software refactoring and tech debt is absolutely where LLMs will shine as is evidenced by the Bun rewrite.

Quality is different than something that feels “special” which every Ferrari I’ve sat in or drove has in spades.

Whether or not it’s well put together is another topic entirely.

I don’t understand why anyone is jumping to conclusions about anything before anyone has driven it.

A Ferrari is about driving, and while it wouldn’t surprise me that the driving experience is generally the same as most EVs I’m unwilling to dismiss this based on looks alone.

Large Apache ecosystem (Spark, Flink, Pinot) is completely missing and third-party SDKS (looking at you AWS) almost ALWAYS have worse SDKs. The java Kinesis consumer and producer libraries are amazing, the ones for C# are simple wrappers around the AWS APIs which means there's a few foot guns waiting for developers to run into, even if they should know better.

The speed is really cool but the fact that your rules are written as rust code meaning that new rules need a new binary. That might be fine but just wanted to point it out to anyone who's interested.

I haven't gotten this notification yet

> A huge number of people are convinced that OpenAI and Anthropic are selling inference tokens at a loss despite the fact that there's no evidence this is true and a lot of evidence that it isn't.

I think it’s fairly obvious that Anthropic is lighting cash on fire and focusing on whether or not they’re losing money per token on inference is missing the forest for the trees.

Tokens become less valuable when the models aren’t continuously trained and we have zero idea what Anthropic is paying for training.

Have you never run a team of software engineers as a lead? Agentic coding comes naturally to a lot of people because that's PRECISELY what you do when you're leading a team, herding multiple brains to point them in the same direction so when you combine all their work it becomes something that is greater than the sum of it's parts.

Lots of the complains about agents sound identical to things I've heard and even said myself about junior engineers.

That said, there's always going to need to be people who can reach below the abstraction and agentic coding loops deprive you of the ability to get those reps in.

Nice straw man.

Nobody is talking about banning anything, we’re talking specifically about holding social media companies accountable for marketing to children a product that is knowingly addictive and potentially harmful to their health.

Part of the issue with social media is that no reasonable parent lets their 12 year old watch porn or drink but Instagram and ticktock are on a lot more 12 year old’s phone’s than you realize. Social media has network effects and creates tremendous social pressure to not make your kid “different” when half the classroom is sharing TikToks.

I’m not conservative in the slightest but I see no reason to treat social media any differently than alcohol, tobacco or gambling. Available without restriction to adults but limited to children under a certain age.

I think people are overreacting about what amounts to a patent. There's no evidence if BMW will actually use this and if they do how.

I'm not defending BMW here but there was a similar freak-out a few years ago about heated seats requiring monthly payments that ended up being a giant nothing burger.

There’s a million reasonable situations where this pattern could arise because of you want to encapsulate a domain behind a micro service.

Take the simplest case of a CRM system a service provides search/segmentation and CRUD on top of customer lists. I can think of a million ways other services could use that data.