ctoa

"So, teleoperation is probably very economically productive. Is it a good thing? I think mostly no, for several reasons." followed by several paragraphs discussing the negative consequences. This is celebrating?

Ah yes, put the entire burden on women, coerce them into having kids, let men do whatever. Sounds great, totally sane.

That was my initial reaction, however, there is more to it.

The thing that made these breakthroughs feel important was that they seemed to be open ended problems that the system itself made independent progress on. That the results were not primarily great retrieval into the corpus of mathematical research + stitching together.

A major point of having novel frontier problems as a benchmark itself is to try to sidestep this issue a bit, where it's hard to tell if one is evaluating reasoning vs retrieval capabilities.

But at least one of the problems was identified as definitely being plausibly mostly retrieval, since it hinges on but does not cite a 2016 paper that the author identified. Closely enough that the author describes it as plagiarism. Another problem seems to combine results from 2016 and 2019.

Ignoring the question of credit, it makes it look like OpenAI doesn't actually understand the eval well in the first place, and undercuts the notion that the results represent great leaps forward in mathematical reasoning.

Yes, and those alcoholics also exactly fit the multi-day accumulation pattern. These aren't people taking one day of Tylenol after a bender for a hangover. The pattern is people with an impaired ability to process acetaminophen (alcoholics) taking multiple days of doses they can't handle (their daily safe dose is about 1/2 of normal) for chronic pain (like chronic back pain).

I absolutely think we should ban acetaminophen in otc combo meds. There was a big drop in hospitalizations when they dropped the max allowed dose in prescription drugs like Vicodin, there's no reason these otc things like NyQuil need to exist at all.

"A lot fatalities due to taking after hangovers" no, that's not how acetaminophen fatalities happen. In fact, the article you cited specifically mentions "there is no scientific evidence that people with AUD (alcohol use disorder) who take the recommended dose of acetaminophen increase their risk of liver damage."

Fatalities happen basically from: product stacking combination medicines people don't realize contain acetaminophen and/or multi-day accumulation exceeding max daily limit over multiple days.

Chronic drinkers have impaired acetaminophen processing so they can't handle otherwise safe doses, but fatalities still typically occur in multi-day accumulation scenarios. Their safe daily max is ~half that of a non drinker.

The effects of one round of acute drinking don't impair the liver in the same way. People are not dropping dead because they took a normal dose of acetaminophen for a hangover. Not that I'm recommending you start doing it, but it is a myth.

Or any love poetry by Lorca, Neruda, Benedetti. The idea that Spanish has to resort to "corazon" and "amor" because it... has fewer words than other languages?? People believe some really crazy stuff.

You are mixing numbers that don't go together.

OED (171k) is comparable in content to RAE + RAE Americanisms (93k + 70k = 163k) because OED is pan dialect. RAE core dictionary by itself is not the same type of coverage as OED.

The 1M+ English number is essentially a garbage number from a media tracking company called Global Language Monitor and includes things no serious dictionary would include. 300k+ is for a very comprehensive legit Spanish dictionary with technical and historical words. Those two numbers aren't comparable.

"which you admit is a far lower figure in Spanish vs other languages." no you just misunderstood, the numbers are very comparable.

Looking to your perceptions of ngrams in pop lyrics is not a great way of doing linguistics, there are in fact many alternatives in Spanish for expressing emotions about love, whether you are aware of them or not, or whether song writers over use certain words. English lyrics repeat an awful lot of "love" "heart" and "baby".

The only thing you're right about here is that Spanish is "nearly phonetic" by which you mean that the writing system is orthographically transparent and very standardized. That's true and a huge benefit for learners.

The rest is not right, the word counts in particular is just a reflection of why counting words in a language is hard:

93k comes from the number headwords listed in the core RAE dictionary. The RAE's dictionary of Americanism adds another 70k entries. When you include historical and technical terminology, more comprehensive dictionaries will have well over 300k words.

Counting "over a million" from English comes from way, way more inclusive counting methods that throw in technical jargon, acronyms, global slang, etc. The OED, which would compare to the RAE dictionary numbers, lists only 171k words.

Beyond this, counting is complicated by the fact that compounding and morphological changes work differently, English will use different words in cases where Spanish would use suffixes, and will count compounds as words that in Spanish would be phrases.

"there's only a few ways to express yourself in Spanish compared to other languages." is very wrong. Spanish word order is massively more flexible than English, grammar and morphology more nuanced, they do things in different ways but this is a deep misunderstanding.

No, it's not though. That's true for antibody tests commonly used for individuals because it's cheap. The window period for nucleic acid testing that is used for blood supply is very short. This test is similar to what's used to confirm a positive antibody test, but isn't used for individual testing because it is too expensive. Hence the pooling.

There remain undecidable problems even with finite memory/state space.

Linear bounded automata (LBA) the halting problem is decidable. But many properties of LBA are undecidable:

Emptiness: Does an LBA reject all possible inputs? Universality: Does an LBA accept all possible inputs over its alphabet? Equivalent: Do two LBA accept the same language? Finiteness: Does an LBA accept a finite number of strings.

The bigger worry isn't really false negatives, modern PCR based testing is incredibly good. There is always risk but it's frankly extremely low. The bigger issue is that blood is pooled before testing to make that powerful testing economical. If you increase the rate at which you get (also possibly false) positives you risk having to throw out whole batches of pooled donations.

The very first thing I did when coming to this thread was search for if someone had already mentioned "one book theory". My favorite episodes of IBCK are mostly the self-help trash.

Mass produced EVs and reusable rockets are already decade old accomplishments. His track record this last decade of accomplishing things he proposes is noticeably much worse.

Neuralink is just another medical device company right now. The things it is succeeding at aren't the crazy sci-fi Elon "telepathy" vision at all, and there are other BCI companies.

Boring Company is quite stagnant and I would say what they achieved is very underwhelming. The original framing was that it would revolutionize the costs of subway and high speed rail tunnels and it has not achieved that at all. The things it currently does are nothing like the vision Musk was selling in 2017, much of the original concept was shelved.

Robotaxi is wildly off schedule and his timelines that he puts out for it have been non-stop over optimistic and wrong. This may catch up eventually, but it's currently not at the point that Musk was already claiming it was at 10 years ago.

I'd list as another big flop of the last 10 years the Tesla Solar Roof.

Also, I think by far the biggest Musk reality mismatch is the story he pushes regarding Optimus vs what anyone has actually seen of that product. That mismatch is absolutely wild. Anyone who believes the things he says about timelines for it needs to get a grip.