cowmoo
Joined 19 years ago
Joined 19 years ago
I'll share my algorithm here:
https://www.quantopian.com/posts/xiv-slash-vxx-pair-trade-1
"Pair-trading VXX and XIV based on the StockTwits sentiments of the SPY at market open. The backtest did really well from 2011 to 2014 with 1700-1800% return in 3 years; and flat between 2014 to present-time... would love to see what people come up to reduce the drawdown's and improve the performance from 2014-2016".
The reason I share my algorithms is trading is one of the hardest ways to make easy money. Making money due to slippage, regime change and overfitting bias is difficult, a poor investment (most hedge funds don't beat index funds) but sharing and learning about statistics, machine-learning and big data is a better investment in self.
Also philosophically, most strategies have limited shelf-life, so it is better to learn how to fish than to hold onto the fish you've got.
https://www.quantopian.com/posts/xiv-slash-vxx-pair-trade-1
Pair-trading VXX and XIV based on the StockTwits sentiments of the SPY at market open. The backtest did really well from 2011 to 2014 with 1700-1800% return in 3 years; and flat between 2014 to present-time,
I'd really love it if people can improve upon the algo and see what people when they clone the algo and come up with ways to mitigate the drawdown's and improve the performance!
INFP ftw, feeling up and perceiving people over thinking and judging people!
What is your impression of them as a pernicious/positive force? Are they essentially market making?
Open for debate. Depends on what you mean as a pernicious/positive force. Good for retail investors, institutional investors, stability of the market, or the sell-side? All of these are conflicting sides. It is generally SEC's mission to protect the small individual investors' fair access to the market, while trying to walk the fine line of not disrupting the big institutional investors/sell-side brokers' way of doing business (and their political lobbying groups).
Pro HFT argument: HFT are virtual market makers that through the use of technology and arbitraging through multiple ECNs, are decreasing the bid/ask spread of the traditional market makers and providing more liquidity to the market. They serve as stabilizing force during irrational exuberances.
Con HFT argument: HFT are bad predators who through technology, jump ahead of institutional investors' block orders and in term pass on higher priced liquidity to retail investors that no one needs. They don't serve as stabilizing force, as they stop trading as soon as they stop making money and in fact may fan the fire by employing high frequency short selling in a flash crash.
However, I respectfully disagree that humans are better at making trading decisions than computers. The world of algo trading can be divided into two sides, a) high frequency traders, who through fast cancel-and-replace limit orders and colo with the market centers, try to act as virtual market-makers (or scalpers, depending on your perspective), b) buy-side institutional fund managers who want to complete their orders, without HFT predators and negative market pressure. Large block orders are spliced into small lots (i.e., VWAP) and sent to the market using intentional limit price over time to hide the movement of a huge buy or sell order on the market.
Human beings might be better than machines at picking single stocks for long term investing (although most people are probably still better off investing in an ETF). But that's not how sell-side traders make money in the first place. Guys like GS/MS/Timberhill make money by having the unfair advantage of faster execution speed, more capital and specialized trading algo's against the small retail investors.
Yes, this is true and oft-repeated mantra on YC News. But it begs the question, how does one practice the "proper" technique (I mean after all, doesn't everyone want to follow the correct form of shooting hoops/strumming a guitar chord, but most people don't have a dedicated shooting coach/guitar teacher to watch their every move or they do know the right technique by heart in theory but can't carry it out in practice for various reasons).
The best protip I've received in learning an instrument (and actually doing anything) is when you are stuck at a particular exercise, move onto the next hardest exercise anyways. When you stumble upon the simplest guitar lick on the first page of a guitar book,you might say "are you crazy? I can't even play the first exercise." But if you play the next hardest lick and stumble upon it for a couple of days, then try to play a third lick even harder than the second lick for a couple of days, and then go back to the very first lick. You might find that you can now play it pretty well, or suck much less than before.
Yes, practicing is all about hard work and all that, but it is also about momentum and keeping things fresh and new. If it's not fun, you are doing something wrong.
A couple caveats though; I think your definition of technology is too narrow, Web 2.0 is only one segment. The smartest people have moved on from IT which has already matured, and are working on green tech and genetic therapy where supposedly the next break through will come.
Also, even in software since money seems to be the biggest concern to you, consumer-centric software isn't where the money is made - it's just what appeals to be the most sexy to the young & naive. High frequency trading, e-discovery, medical informatics, Sarbones-Oxley compliance modules - there are tons of enterprise software companies in those fields make revenue more than most of the Web 2.0 startup's you listed.
Finally, I don't think what motivates programmers aren't necessarily the same that motivates a business-person. The best way I can describe this is by the musician and A&R example; there are some musician's who want to make it big and appeal to as many people as they can (i.e., Linkin Park), there are those complementary record labels who can help popular musicians by handling the business side and tailor their records to the focus groups. But there are also those musician's who care more about pushing than envelope than selling records, and if they are successful, like the early black blues & jazz musician's in the 40's and 30's, their influence will get heard in the 60's and 70's (ripped off by white musicians). Most people in IT operates on this sliding scale between craftsmen and A&R as well.
I suppose you could also program or seen code programmed with an accent.
After you have learned the basic open chords, scales and the fretboard notes, and "Wonderwall" - and are bored with the strings. You could go always back to silicon and build
a) an Arduino interface to an software/hardware mixer such as Ableton Live for live mixing and improvisation
b) an machine-learning program that takes GuitarPro tabs of the entire catalog of your favorite band and permute MIDI compositions/new guitar tabs based on the band's style.
c) Program your own synth in Max/MSP.
d) Develop a real-time music note recognition software that tab/annotate the chord changes, drum tabs, make music sheets for live online music jamming.
Also try to play the sitar/banjo/mandolin, there's already lots of guitar players.
Past work:
Genetic Disease Prediction (sponsored by GSoC) http://code.google.com/soc/2008/siai/appinfo.html?csaid=E0A382E700C0B278
Distributed computing http://sc07.supercomputing.org/schedule/event_detail.php?evid=11143
Bioinformatics http://igs.wesleyan.edu/projects.htm#rice-weir