copenja

1) Aggregate month-to-month inflation metrics were flat/low due to gas prices falling, but many important categories were still quickly inflating. Notably rent, but also food.

2) The reason people normally reference 12 month inflation windows is because many things, like energy prices, are very volatile month to month. It is going to take time to really see the trends.

3) For things that skyrocketed like food, people are hoping to actually see the prices come back down.

So, yeah, you are correct on your numbers, clearly. But as an non-expert, I'm not really sure the current trends are positive. I think they are still pretty troubling.

Comment · 4 years ago

I don't think the stimulus being one of the drivers of inflation is an 'extremist fringe theory' at all. I thought the consensus was it was one of many factors, and the exact contribution of the different factors (stimulus, supply issues, etc) was up for debate.

US inflation is higher than other wealthy nations and the US also did a larger stimulus. So there is evidence that the additional stimulus may have created greater inflation in the US. Scope this paper here: [0]

As far as the consensus for the cause of inflation being unclear among experts, scope this article in left leaning VOX: [1].

[0] https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi...

[1] https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-american-rescue-plan-infl...

Comment · 4 years ago

I thought flip once rule was to encourage keeping the lid closed so the temperature stays even.

Everytime u open the lid, all the hot air is released and the grill takes time to reach steady temp.

Still... I've done both ways and they certainly work.

Comment · 4 years ago

So are we saying that cognitive ability CAN be accurately measured with a test?

I've seen people repeatedly claim IQ like tests were invalid.

Comment · 5 years ago

Check out 'Exhibit 4' in report linked from the article: https://archive.md/DRUiI.

It shows that in the USA "net worth relative to nominal GDP" is actually pretty stable. The US has the lowest multiple of all the countries under analysis. Indeed the graph shows the US being almost exactly at the historical average.

I'm not sure what this means, but I certainly found it surprising.

Comment · 5 years ago

The human mind requires practice to retain skill and proficiency. Period. People who were solid engineers and later become executives, 20 years down the line many say they no longer can code. I've seen this many times.

Where are you getting this concept that humans never forget skills? That's completely false.

Comment · 5 years ago

According to this article[1], large investment companies accounted to 16.1% of all single family home sales in the US in Q2. I'm not an analyst. But, I would think that would be plenty of extra demand to influence the price?

Comment · 5 years ago

FYI, what was reported was that Facebook was previously weighting all emoji reactions at 5 times the like button, but not specifically the angry reaction.

By the end of last year, they changed it so the angry reaction specifically gets a zero bonus, but love/sad still get boosted. Apparently this did not affect engagement.

I got this all from the Washington Post article on the subject.

Comment · 5 years ago

Epic pays pretty well. I've seen senior developers getting 350k plus total comp, so it's not horrible.

Comment · 6 years ago

It's fair to say that NYC was stretched to the limit, and certainly stretched farther than anyone would want, but it is hard to make a claim that hospitals were overwhelmed anywhere like predicted. New York hospitalizations peaked at 18,825[0], while Cuomo predicted they would need 30,000 additional ventilators. The expanded bed capacity in New York reached 90,000 at Cuomo's command[0]. There is no known case of an american not receiving a ventilator if needed [1][2].

And, remember disease models did not just predict unmitigated spread. They absolutely incorporated percentages of social distancing into their models. The original imperial college study predicted that a high income county with around 50% social contact reduction would still exceed hospital capacity by 700%.

Cuomo's New York model that predicted 30,000 additional ventilators absolutely incorporated lockdown measures, if they didn't they have some serious explaining to do.

Of course I still agree a lockdown was needed, and agree the lockdown did about as well as it could. But is there any reason to not revisit data and determine if we could do better?

[0] https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-coronavirus-hospitalizatio... [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/13/coronavirus-p... [2] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/14/dfc_ceo_t...

Comment · 6 years ago

In the article he implies these are people who are not working, not commuting, and not travelling. Here are some quotes from the article:

"He said the information shows that those who are hospitalized are predominantly from the downstate area in or around New York City, are not working or traveling and are not essential employees. He also said a majority of the cases in New York City are minorities, with nearly half being African American or Hispanic."

"Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. Overall, some 73% of the admissions were people over age 51."