cleandreams

It's good news. All text output should be watermarked and it should be serviceable but not exceptional or "creative."

I think an under appreciated part of mathematics has been contributing clean and elegant work precisely so that others could use that as a foundation for further work and new insights. This dump from Open AI seems to be the opposite. Huge and messy, incomprehensible and taken seriously only because of Lean.

There is this assumption that AI will contribute to faster progress in math but given the garbage dump of proofs which we have to take on faith are robust I wonder if the opposite is true.

My reservation could only be dismissed if AI turns out to be able to contribute fundamental new insights and pose new problems. This takes us into an area where AI progress has been slow to say the least.

One reason we have megaprojects is that permits and regulations are so time-consuming that small builders (who face the additional hurdle of coordinating with each other) can't afford it.

The shutdown in housing construction has been so extreme and long lasting I'm of a mind to just let the big guys build. Get out of their way. At least the burden of proof is on those proposing other approaches to show convincingly that their plans are not slowdowns in disguise.

"What Happened to Liberal Democracy" by Daron Acemoglu (Nobel laureate).

As someone who fled the desolation of the rust belt this book spoke to me and I found it credible and compelling. My book club spent 4 hours discussing this book.

I think the fundamental problem is that AI companies have been assuming that reinforcement learning with human feedback is an adequate foundational technology for guardrails. And that simply isn’t true.

I think AI is a fantastic tool, including for those who want to do us harm. E.g. hostile governments, extortion gangs, terrorists. But the motive lies in the hostile heart, not in the AI.

That said, I'm very concerned about AI as such a tool. I used to work in RL and it seems crazy to me, the extent that the guardrails are dependent on RL working as planned. I don't personally believe that the tech is ready for what will be (and is) encountered in a dynamic unpredictable real world environment. What I've read from the HuggingFace 'transcripts' only amplifies my concern.

AI is missing the part of intelligence which involves insight. LLMs generate language blobs with highly sophisticated correlations. The governing insight in human cognition is essential to intelligence. It prunes the tree. It puts things in context. Everything is important to an LLM because insight intelligence is missing from the technology. The usefulness of LLMs doesn't tell us they are intelligent. It tells us how brilliant an invention language was.

I am not excited about tech anymore. I dread it to be honest. I was an early engineer at a AI company that got acquired. From that and related stock (golden handcuffs) was able to retire a couple of years ago. There were some tech problems that I wanted to investigate and I took a bunch of classes. Fun.

I loved my career.

Wow have my feelings changed. I'm disgusted. It's a moral disgust. The scene turns me off SO MUCH. Just a recent tidbit: I think it is Anthropic that is buying old (some antique, vintage) books, scanning them, then pulping them.

There is no restraint at this point. Whether it's Meta and their pervert glasses and child exploitation. Or google trashing their own search.

One thing that has turned my stomach is how management has acted after discovering they could trash their skilled workers in the way that so many other industries have been able to do. If you want to know management's true character, remove the moat (that skill used to be) from the workers and watch what happens.

...Okay, I'm editing. There is a bright spot. The other day I was sitting around doing nothing and suddenly out of the blue dreamed up an app that could help build community regarding an activity I care a lot about. With an LLM I could do the whole thing myself. I'm excited about this. I might fit this in among my other projects. It's kind of like taking a hammer and chisel and cutting a piece off of Big Tech. If all of us skilled folks do this we could have an impact and serve community at the same time.

I don't think the bottleneck was engineering time alone. There is context, brand, customer support, etc. I am not sure big complex products are particularly vulnerable in the way you state. However I have been thinking of a one smallish problem in a niche space that I could easily code for. There will be more of that.

Anyone who is worried about their gum inflammation should consider going on metformin. I had bleeding gums for my entire adult life. In my late 60s I was put on metformin for pre-diabetes. A year later all traces of gum inflammation have disappeared. This is a known side effect of metformin usage. You can look up the studies. It is one reason why metformin is being researched as an anti-aging drug.

"Software quality is tied to the market incentives and always has been."

Yes -- but. The market is irrational especially in a time of mania or panic. The AI phase we are in has mania, bubble aspects. There is no rational calculation about what is happening to software quality and is that good for customers or the industry (or individual businesses). We are too far into FOMO. It won't stop until it STOPS. Uh oh.

A friend of mine works in a niche software field at a small company. It was recently acquired and the whole technical team was laid off because the new director of engineering determined that they could replace the whole team with AI. All of the people who wrote the product were dumped as well as the whole cohort they had trained. Everyone.

I really noticed this a few years ago to the point that I changed a few things and they have helped.

1. I notice the movement of my attention. I used to default to something like: sit down at my computer to look something up. But before I do that, just check the email. Then I am down some sort of rabbit hole. I did this sort of thing with no awareness or conscious choice. The change is that I notice what I'm doing. Then I can rein it back. I make a choice. (I think scrolling videos gets us into a habit of not choosing what to pay attention to.)

2. Be aware of my curiosity. Try to stay in touch with it. If I get into the space of curiosity I have a lot more juice for sustained attention. Something that helps with this is long form reading, especially fiction (!). I find myself replenished for all my work. The next thing I will try is some group support: silent reading groups where you read together.

3. I have an app on my devices that limits my access to twitter and reddit etc to small windows in the day.

4. Turn off ALL notifications except text messages.

My son has ADHD and I never knew what it meant but this year I made him get coaching for it and I made him get meds. He was living at home for free rent and the condition of staying was to address this. My experience is that getting treatment for this condition helped him a lot. The coach really helped, the meds really helped. He is full of zest for the work that lies ahead. He's off on his own now and while I think he'll have stumbles it's basically very positive.

One thing about ADHD coaching. The coach is a consistent person who helps frame a positive attitude with agency and skills and this takes you away from negative self talk. It's good. I think ADHD folks need this positive support.

There is more to this story. I have heard Harvard (and its ilk) described as a smallish university attached to a massive investment fund. One of the criteria for admission is how much you and your family will be "good for" donations to the university. They much prefer students from rich families, even if they are the children of disagreeable dictators.

No. Briahna Joy Gray and a guest whose name I don't remember.